For the first time since 2022, the Denver Nuggets are down in a series. A victory at home in Game 2 would wipe away that deficit, but still, the Nuggets are now looking at an uphill battle after surrendering homecourt advantage in the potential seven-game series.
The Minnesota Timberwolves held the Nuggets under 100 points in Game 1 for the first time all postseason. They did the same thing in the regular season and were the only team to hold Denver's offense under 100 points on multiple occasions. This is a tough opponent that finished in first place in defensive efficiency after 82 games.
Now, it's worth mentioning that Jamal Murray strained his calf at the end of Game 4 against the Los Angeles Lakers in round one. He was listed as questionable with the calf injury heading into the second round. After Game 1 against Minnesota, Murray told reporters...
"It's going to be a part of it," Murray said about his calf injury. "I've accepted that. There are counters for everything, so I've just got to keep adjusting. We've got to keep adjusting and find ways to get it done. The calf is whatever it is."
Murray obviously plays an incredibly crucial role in Denver's offense. Outside of being one of the Nuggets' main scoring options, he's also the team's best ball-handler who can generate looks for the guys around him. If he's at all hindered by the calf strain, well, as Murray mentioned, the team will need to find other counters.
Digging in defensively might be one way to do it.
The Nuggets, in large part, adopted the defensive strategy the Phoenix Suns used against Timberwolves star, Anthony Edwards, in round one. They hurled the kitchen at him. However, Denver is much better equipped. They have more length up and down their roster than the Suns.
On Ant's drives to the rim, Denver's off-ball defenders "pinched in" to force a pass out to the perimeter. Edwards is one of the most dangerous, if not THE most dangerous downhill player left standing in the postseason. It makes sense to defend him that way. Passing is a skill he's improving, but it's still a skill that's secondary for him. A skill that he's had to learn. It's not something he was born with, like his ability to drive past defenders at will and score at the rim.
In the first half, that gambit worked. Denver's off-ball defenders played in the gaps to take away Edwards' driving lanes, leaving him with no other choice but to pass out to his teammates. This gave up some open threes, of course, but the Timberwolves made just 2 of their 13 uncontested three-pointers in the first half of Game 1 according to the NBA's tracking data. Here, Michael Porter Jr. sags off Naz Reid in the corner to clog up Ant's drive, and Reid misses the open shot.
The problem in Game 1 was that those open outside shots started to fall in the second half. Minnesota made 7 of its 12 uncontested three-pointers in the final 24 minutes. This second-half clip features, for the most part, the same general strategy against Edwards. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope pinches in on Ant's driving lane to help Jamal Murray at the expense of a Reid three-pointer. However, this go-around, Reid makes Denver pay.
That was largely the ball game. A discrepancy in accuracy on open shots from half to half. That's something Denver will have to juggle all series: To help? Or not to help? Should they show Edwards a crowd at the risk of open shots? Are they willing to play the shooting variance game? Or are they going to let Edwards get his, in a sense, and instead erase the impact of his teammates?
Now, that's a bit of an oversimplification. There are plenty of other adjustments that the Nuggets can make. Smaller, more micro-level adjustments.
One has to wonder if Denver will be more aggressive about helping off certain players in Game 2.
Minnesota had an excellent showing in Game 1, but their starting small forward, Jaden McDaniels, did not have a good offensive game and went 0-of-7 from the field and 0-of-2 from three-point land. That's not an aberration. He shot just 27 percent from deep against the Suns and was a 33 percent outside shooter in the regular season. Minnesota leans on him a ton for his defense, and for good reason. He's excellent on that end, but he can also be a bit of a non-factor on offense.
On this Karl-Anthony Towns post-up, Justin Holiday completely abandons McDaniels to help Murray with a double-team. There should be more of that. If McDaniels beats you with his outside jumper, so be it.
Here, Porter Jr. begins this play standing in the painted area while his man, McDaniels, is in the corner. He's ready to protect the rim. However, when Edwards gets behind Murray after this terrific halfcourt set, MPJ naturally slides back to McDaniels in the corner. He doesn't want to give up an open outside shot. Threes are worth more than twos.
Now, imagine if Porter Jr. had just stayed glued to the painted area. The shot at the rim for Edwards likely would've been nullified, and he would've had no other option but to pass out to McDaniels in the corner.
McDaniels is a 36 percent shooter from the corners. That's good, not great, and it's better than giving up a layup to Edwards at the rim. Helping off McDaniels even more seems like low-hanging fruit for the Nuggets. There's a case to be made that his man should just live inside the painted area as an extra defender at the expense of anything he does offensively. This is an excellent coaching staff; they'll make those types of adjustments.
Playing Nikola Jokić higher on ball screens is another one. Here, Jokić begins this play with his feet on the three-point line when Rudy Gobert screens for Edwards. Doing so cuts off the driving angle from Edwards and makes it impossible for him to rev up his explosive first step. He's left with no other option but to pass to Mike Conley in the corner. Jokić's positioning turns a potential north-to-south possession into one that goes east to west.
Compare the previous play to this one. Here, when Gobert screens for Conley, Jokić is below the three-point line in a "drop" coverage. Minnesota's guards, and particularly Conley, are sharp off-the-dribble shooters. Jokić may need to play high up the floor against almost all of Minnesota's pick-and-rolls. It could both take away pull-up shots from Conley and at least partially mitigate Edwards' ferocious downhill driving.
This would, of course, open up rolls to the rim for Gobert, but that might be a survivable outcome. That's the nature of running an NBA defense; you can't take away everything. Instead, coaches will look to extinguish the most dangerous parts of an opponent's offense and live with everything else.
Here's an example of what that might look like. Edwards and Gobert connect for a pick-and-roll, Jokić defends the action above the three-point line, and Gobert rolls freely into the painted area. However, he's met by Jamal Murray, who rotates over as the helper. Rudy catches and hesitates instead of shooting over the top of Murray. The possession completely stalls out until Towns hits an incredibly tough runner.
Rudy is a great player, but he's not particularly dynamic offensively. That's the difference between this series and the last one. Anthony Davis was an effective screener for the Lakers, and he could post up smaller players and score with ease if Denver was forced to rotate underneath the hoop. Rudy is not as comfortable scoring one-on-one. The key is beating him to his spot like Murray does in the clip above. That's when things started to look a bit mechanical for Minnesota.
That seems like a viable game plan for the Nuggets. They should feel comfortable playing Jokić at the level of screens and rotating smaller players onto Gobert when he rolls, provided the player gets there in time. Make him take awkward floaters or funky hook shots.
Porter Jr. feels like the perfect guy for this strategy. He's 6'10, so he'll make Gobert think twice about finishing strong up close. And if he continues to guard McDaniels like he did for most of Game 1, well, that's all the more incentive to cheat off his man and meet Gobert early at the rim. A McDaniels open corner three, as we noted earlier, is a very livable outcome.
Lastly, this might be a big series for Christian Bruan. Edwards is going to be a handful no matter what in this series, and he finished Game 1 with 43 points on 17-of-29 shooting. Still, Braun had some nice possessions on him. CB's quick and athletic enough to deal with Ant's explosiveness; and at 6'7 with a 40-inch vertical, he's able to get a hand up against 6'4 Edwards' shots. That's something we wrote about in our series preview, and it certainly held up in the second-round opener.
This series is far from over. The Nuggets can tie things up in Game 2, and then they'll need to steal just one game on the road to regain homecourt advantage.
These are just a few ideas thrown out by the team's writer. Imagine what a championship-winning coaching staff can do.