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2018-19 Wizards Season Preview Roundtable

With the season beginning Thursday, the WashingtonWizards.com writing staff broke down six key questions heading into 2018-19.

What are your expectations for the Wizards in 2018-19?

Zach Rosen (ZR): The Wizards are certainly flying under the radar heading into the 2018-19 season. All of the talk is about the Celtics, Raptors, and Sixers, and rightly so. Sure, the 2017-18 season was disappointing, but the Wizards still won 43 games with John Wall missing half of the season. With more depth than they’ve had in the last decade, the Wizards should be able to build off that 43 games and be a dark horse in the East.

It’s no secret that the Wizards rely heavily on their All-Stars Wall and Bradley Beal. Otto Porter Jr. is going to make another jump this season, and I believe he can truly become a fringe All-Star (more on that later). Keef Morris, Dwight Howard, Austin Rivers, Jeff Green, and Ian Mahinmi give the Wizards a slew of experienced veterans. Tomas Satoransky and Kelly Oubre Jr. are determined to build off of their jumps last season.

The Wizards want to play faster, shoot more triples and layups, and be a top 10 defensive team. They’ve shown in preseason that they’re committed to those concepts, and they should be able to carry that over into the regular season after getting some dress rehearsals in.

With Howard missing the entire preseason, there’s certainly still some chemistry to be built. The Wizards are not rushing him back and Mahinmi has meshed nicely with the first unit. Still, as we all dive into later on, Howard’s health and presence down low will be a key determining factor this season.

Overall, there are some new pieces in D.C., and it may take time for the Wizards to be playing their best basketball. The team will be tested early with two tough home games against Miami and Toronto and then a five-game road trip out West. How they respond to success and adversity during the season will be very interesting to watch. It’s going to be fun to watch this team night in and night out because of their sheer talent and potential they have.

The Wizards will make the playoffs and should be higher than the No. 8 seed they were last season, and I expect them to be a hard out in the postseason like they have been during the Wall and Beal era.

Chris Gehring (CG): The Wizards expect to compete for a top-4 seed (at least) in the East this season, and I think that goal is well within reach. We know that Boston, Philadelphia and Toronto in some order are going to be up there as well, but Washington likes its chances against any of those teams given good health. There’s no reason they can’t earn at least one round of home court advantage in the playoffs, something that is highly coveted in the NBA.

To do that, the Wizards will need another pair of All-Star caliber performances from their two All-Stars in John Wall and Bradley Beal. If both are healthy all season, this could be a year for Washington to take a leap given the landscape of the Eastern Conference. Adding Dwight Howard, Austin Rivers and Jeff Green marks a significant upgrade, particularly in the second unit. All three bring veteran experience that includes plenty of postseason appearances. That should help shorten the learning curve and help team chemistry get up to speed fairly quickly. Perhaps most important is that each of the newcomers along with the existing core knows the roles that everyone is expected to play. Once Coach Brooks finds the rotations and groups he likes together on the floor, Washington has the firepower and experience to win upwards of 50 games. I think that’s the expectation internally, and if everything breaks right, the Wizards have the pieces to get it done.

Ryan Disdier (RD): With a healthy John Wall, new faces and a more open Eastern Conference, the expectations for the Wizards should be higher than they were entering 2017-18. LeBron James now resides in the Eastern Conference, which in turn means the Cleveland Cavaliers are no longer front-runners to win the East. Instead, it’s the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers receiving much of the national attention -- and for good reason. Boston came a game shy of making the NBA Finals, while the Sixers are a surging team with two superstars.

The Wizards shouldn’t be considered an afterthought in any regard, and it’s reasonable to expect the Wizards to compete for the fourth-seed in the Eastern Conference. The team returns a number of key contributors, and also improved in some crucial areas.

The dynamic tandem of John Wall and Bradley Beal remains in place, as do Otto Porter Jr. and Kelly Oubre Jr. The big difference from a year ago, however, is the improved bench. The Wizards brought in Austin Rivers and Jeff Green to help spark the second unit, while Tomas Satoransky displayed he’s a formidable player last season.

Essentially, the Wizards added substantial pieces, while not suffering any major subtraction. That puts them in a good spot to improve on last year’s 43-game win total.

The Wizards should be able to achieve a higher seed than last year, and an improved bench, along with roster continuity, could help propel the team deeper into the playoffs.

What do you make of the new offensive scheme (3-point and layup emphasis) and defensive scheme (switching 1-4 instead of 1-5)?

ZR: Turning to Moreyball – focusing on 3-pointers and layups/dunks and eliminating bad midrange shots – was a good decision by the Wizards. They have so many guys who are great at getting to the rim and shooting. There will still be midrange shots, but as if they’ve demonstrated in the preseason, the team is very focused on the new scheme. All in all, this scheme will help the Wizards take better shots and focus on making the extra pass.

Defensively, there were times last season that Marcin Gortat and Ian Mahinmi were caught in difficult matchups since the team was switching 1-5. Gortat was a fine defender, but the Wizards want to really utilize Dwight Howard and Mahinmi as rim protectors and only switch 1-4 when one of them is in the game. This should benefit the Wizards’ interior defense and still retain their versatility with players who can defend multiple positions.

CG: With two true centers in Dwight Howard and Ian Mahinmi that specialize in protecting the rim and defending the paint, the defensive strategy makes a ton of sense. This is even more true when considering the range of defensive ability in the rest of the rotation. John Wall and Bradley Beal can certainly guard multiple positions with their size and athleticism, as can fellow guards Tomas Satoransky and Austin Rivers. Markieff Morris and Jeff Green have similar range, particularly in their ability to both score and defend inside and all the way out to the 3-point arc. Finally, wing players Otto Porter Jr. and Kelly Oubre Jr. will see plenty of time playing as 4’s in smaller lineups, mainly because of their ability to truly guard 1-4.

As for the offensive philosophy, it mirrors the Wizards’ biggest strengths. All of the guards and forwards on the roster can shoot from 3-point range, and all three of the presumed primary ball-handlers (John Wall, Austin Rivers and Tomas Satoransky) can attack the rim with reliable creativity. In addition, both bigs (Howard and Mahinmi) are at their best when they’re running to the rim. Scott Brooks trusts Wall, Rivers and Satoransky’s abilities to make decisions on when to find shooters and when to attack, and that chemistry is paramount to offensive success this season. The duel threat that all three possess to both drive and hit 3-pointers are what should keep defenses off balance and allow Washington to dictate the pace of the game.

RD: Offensively, the decision to shift to a more 3-point, layup-heavy approach makes sense. With the way the league is trending, capitalizing on shooting more threes is a wise decision. The starting five will likely benefit from the switch. The change will also pay dividends for the second unit, especially with Austin Rivers now joining the group.

The defensive switch should be beneficial as well. Considering the crop of athletic, versatile defenders currently on the roster, switching 1-4 makes sense. Additionally, Dwight Howard was signed to be an anchor down low, so switching 1-4 is an ideal scheme.

What’s a bold prediction for this year’s team?

ZR: Otto Porter Jr. enters the All-Star conversation, and he participates in the 3-point contest. The Wizards are planning to shoot way more 3-pointers this season, which would indicate more shots for Porter. Scott Brooks has also said he wants Porter to bring the ball up in transition, which gives him even more chances. Otto’s finished in the top five in 3-point percentage the past two seasons, and he focused all offseason on on-ball defense. His game is very underrated and I still think he has plenty of potential to tap into. Porter’s efficiency numbers are there, now it’s time to bring up the volume.

CG: The Wizards crack the East’s top 3. This is obviously a tall test, but the Wizards won 44 games last season while losing 19 games against sub-.500 competition. Washington is well aware of that number going into this season, and if it improves even modestly on that record, it will be in contention for a top-3 seed at the end of the season. For reference, the Sixers finished with 52 victories in the No. 3 seed last season. Of course, the top of the East figures to improve this season, but the Wizards think (rightfully so) that they got appreciably better this offseason, too.

RD: The Wizards finish with a winning record in regular season games against Western Conference playoff teams.

Which new addition will have the biggest impact?

ZR: Dwight Howard will have the biggest impact, and that will depend on his health. If he’s healthy and able to play 60 to 70 games, the Wizards know what Howard will bring to the table. He can protect the rim, set screens, catch lobs, finish around the rim, and he’s been working on the rest of his offensive game. A healthy Howard will go a long way for the Wizards and give John Wall a solid pick-and-roll pairing.

CG: I’ll go with Jeff Green. He’s happy to be home in the DMV and is fresh off an NBA Finals appearance playing alongside LeBron James in Cleveland. Green is a savvy veteran in his own right and has the versatility that a lot of teams like in their second unit. Moreover, he already has the respect of all of his teammates both on and off the floor. I think he’s an important glue guy for the Wizards this season in addition to being a swiss army knife that can defend all over the floor, attack the rim and shoot from outside. He’ll be a nice piece for Washington that can fit in just about any type of lineup Scott Brooks wants to use him in.

RD: I think the answer is Austin Rivers. Still only 26, Rivers adds scoring prowess to the second unit. He averaged 15.1 points per game last year, while shooting 37.8 % from the field – both of which were new career highs for Rivers. He’ll have a chance to shine in a reserved role running point for the second unit. He’s an improved ball-handler, a capable defender and will be afforded opportunities to make shots.

Who is your x-factor this year?

ZR: Keef Morris. There are plenty of candidates for this projection, including but not limited to Otto Porter Jr., Dwight Howard, and basically the entire second unit. However, Morris, who was hobbled with injuries and issues off the court heading into last season, should be ready to roll this year. The Wizards are planning to use plentiful small lineups featuring Morris at the ‘5’ and they’re expecting big things out of him. Since Morris arrived, it seems that the Wizards go as he goes in terms of scoring, rebounding, defense, and toughness.

CG: Tomas Satoransky may never make headlines on this team, but he can really play and now has a couple of years of NBA experience under his belt. He’s an incredible athlete that is long enough to defend multiple positions, and his game as a scorer has improved every year. I think he can emerge as a piece off the bench that’s just as important (and dynamic) as guys like Austin Rivers, Kelly Oubre Jr. or Jeff Green.

RD: Dwight Howard. Howard should be an upgrade at the center position for the Wizards, and will likely be an immediate improvement on defense. While Howard is not the most offensively efficient big man in the league, he can operate in the pick-and-roll and collect lobs. Howard can also provide invaluable assistance in grabbing rebounds off the glass. If Howard can stay healthy, the Wizards will benefit immensely from his presence, especially on defense.

Win total predictions and Eastern Conference standings predictions.

ZR: 47 wins and fifth behind Boston, Toronto, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee.

CG: I think the Wizards are ready to finally eclipse the 50-win plateau and make some noise in the East. I’ll go with 51 wins for Washington and the 4th seed in a tight race among the top four in the Eastern Conference playoffs.

RD: I’ll say 46 games and fourth in the Eastern Conference.