Looking at the Warriors’ Playoff Picture - 5/12/21

Warriors’ Schedule
5/14 vs Pelicans
(31-38, 13-21 away)
5/16 vs Grizzlies
(36-33, 20-15 away)
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Following Tuesday’s NBA action, the postseason picture is gaining clarity: the Warriors are locked in on going for the No. 8 seed, which is the second best spot in the NBA Play-In Tournament.

While the Warriors have played exceedingly well of late, winning six of their last seven games including back-to-back victories over the two top NBA teams (by record) in the Utah Jazz and Phoenix Suns, those around them in the Western Conference standings rivals have been just as strong.

The doors to the #7 spot in the West are now officially closed to the Dubs. The Warriors are guaranteed a spot in the the NBA Play-In Tournament as all eyes now fall onto the race between the Warriors and Memphis Grizzlies for the #8 seed.

Get ready for the “scenario game,” Dub Nation! We’re going to walk you through everything going on and all the possibilities that lie ahead.

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Western Conference Standings
Through games played on 5/11/21
1. UTA (50-19)
2. PHX (48-21, -2)
3. LAC (46-23, -4)
4. DEN (45-24, -5)
5. POR (40-29, -10)
6. DAL (40-29, -10)
7. LAL (39-30, -11)
8. GSW (37-33, -13.5)
9. MEM (36-33, -14)
10. SAS (33-35, -16.5)
11. NOP (31-38, -19)
12. SAC (31-38, -19)
13. MIN (22-47, -28)
14. OKC (21-49, -29.5)
15. HOU (16-53, -34)

The Warriors had an outside shot at taking the #7 spot from the Los Angeles Lakers, but the Lakers came up with an overtime win over the New York Knicks on Tuesday. At best, the Warriors can finish with the same record as the Lakers, but L.A. owns the tie-breaker, with the Dubs by virtue of head-to-head record (2-1), and the Warriors can’t catch other teams that could possibly fall into the seventh spot.

On the other side of the coin, the Warriors own the tie-breaker with the 10th place Spurs, who can do no better than tie the Warriors record if they win out and the Dubs lose out. Like seventh place, 10th place is not a possibility for the Warriors.

And this is why it all comes down to the #8 and #9 spots, which will inevitably be determined by the play of the Warriors and Memphis Grizzlies. Here’s how it can play out:

If Memphis loses Thursday vs. Sacramento, Friday vs. Sacramento, AND Warriors win Friday vs. NOP:
The Warriors will be guaranteed the No. 8 seed before hitting the weekend. They will play the No. 7 seed on the road next week.

If Memphis wins at least one of their two games vs. Sacramento:
Sunday’s game will then determine everything. With both teams deadlocked 1-1 in their season series, Sunday’s winner also claims the tie-breaker and higher seeding. If the Dubs win, they own the No. 8 seed and play on the road. Should they lose, the Warriors will be the No. 9 seed and host No. 10 at Chase Center.

While you’re cheering on the Warriors, keep close tabs on the Memphis Grizzlies, Dub Nation.

Now that we know where the Warriors could end up in the Western Conference standings, we can discuss tournament matchups, too.

Here is how the bracket would look if the season ended following Tuesday’s games:

Game 1: No. 8 Golden State at No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers -- winner is No. 7 seed in playoffs

Game 2: No. 10 San Antonio at No. 9 Memphis -- winner moves on in play-in; loser is eliminated

Game 3: Spurs/Grizzlies winner at Warriors/Lakers loser -- winner is No. 8 seed in playoffs

But if you saw the Western Conference standings above, you know that No. 7 seed is far from settled with just one game separating the Dallas Mavericks, Portland Trail Blazers and Los Angeles Lakers. Based on the strength of their remaining schedules, the Lakers are most likely to be seventh (69 percent probability), followed by the Trail Blazers (27) and Mavericks (4).

The Spurs are the likely 10th seed at a 98 percent probability, but there are outside chances (1 percent or less) that the Pelicans and Kings find their way into the tournament. But that fate is out of either teams’ hands.

Here’s what’s going on for those in contention of the Play-In Tournament.

Memphis Grizzlies
No. of Games Left: 3
Key Games: at GSW (May 16)
The Grizzlies are guaranteed a spot in the Play-In Tournament. While they are in a tight race with the Warriors for the No. 8 seed, they could loose all three remaining games and fall as far as No. 10 (less than one percent chance).

Los Angeles Lakers
No. of Games Left: 3
Key Games: vs NOP (May 10), vs DAL (May 11), at GSW (May 16)
While the Lakers have a chance to move into sixth and even fifth place, doing so would require losses from the Dallas Mavericks and Portland Trail Blazers. They have no control over that with no games remaining against either opponent.

Portland Trail Blazers
No. of Games Left: 3
Key Games: at UTA (May 12), at PHX (May 13), vs DEN (May 16)
A back-to-back against the Utah Jazz and Phoenix Suns… does that sound familiar? That is what the Trail Blazers are looking at Wednesday and Thursday, followed by a Sunday matchup against the Denver Nuggets. It’s a tough way to end the season, and a team worth watching as Portland does have a chance to fall into the No. 7 spot.

San Antonio Spurs
No. of Games Left: 4
Key Games: vs PHX (May 15), vs PHX (May 16)
The Spurs have it just as tough as the Trail Blazers, finishing their season with a weekend back-to-back against the Suns. While San Antonio has a 98 percent chance of staying in the No. 10 spot, a late winning streak from the Pelicans or Sacramento Kings can make things real interesting here and threaten to bump the Spurs from the playoffs.

All the talk about Play-In Tournament and playoff seeding all comes down to these next few days, Dub Nation. Be ready.

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