The Clippers and Mavericks meet in the first round for the second straight season. LA won last year’s series 4-2.
Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks, 2 p.m. ET, ESPN
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Dallas Mavericks at LA Clippers, 4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
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Boston Celtics at Brooklyn Nets, 8 p.m. ET, ABC
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Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets, 10:30 ET, ESPN
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1. Efficiency Ratings
| TEAM | OFF RATING | DEF RATING | NET RATING |
| MIA | 110.6 (18) | 110.7 (10) | -0.1 (17) |
| MIL | 116.5 (5) | 110.7 (9) | 5.8 (4) |
Miami is the only team in action on Saturday that did not feature a top 10 offense this season. They are also one of only two playoffs teams (along with Washington) with a negative net rating.
| TEAM | OFF RATING | DEF RATING | NET RATING |
| DAL | 114.6 (8) | 112.3 (21) | 2.3 (10) |
| LAC | 116.7 (3) | 110.6 (8) | 6.1 (2) |
The Mavs trail the Clippers on both sides of the ball, with the biggest disparity coming on defense. Can a bottom-third defense slow down a top-three offense?
| TEAM | OFF RATING | DEF RATING | NET RATING |
| BOS | 113.1 (10) | 111.8 (13) | 1.2 (13) |
| BKN | 117.3 (1) | 113.1 (22) | 4.2 (7) |
Brooklyn’s 117.3 offensive rating is the highest on record, topping Dallas’ record of 115.9 from last season. Can Brooklyn simply outscore its opponents or will their 22nd-ranked defense be an issue this postseason?
| TEAM | OFF RATING | DEF RATING | NET RATING |
| POR | 117.1 (2) | 115.3 (29) | 1.8 (12) |
| DEN | 116.3 (6) | 111.5 (11) | 4.8 (6) |
A 29th-ranked defense usually equates to a trip to the lottery rather than the postseason, but Portland’s second-ranked offense was enough to keep their net efficiency positive and keep the Blazers out of the Play-In Tournament. The last team to make a deep playoff run with a bottom-two defense was the 2017-18 Cavaliers, who made the Finals despite having the 29th-ranked defense.
2. Clutch/Games Decided by 5 Points or Less
| TEAM | CLUTCH WIN% | W-L (+/-5 PTS) | W (20+ PTS) |
| MIA | 18-16 (0.529) (13) | 9-9 | 3 |
| MIL | 13-15 (0.464) (20) | 9-7 | 12 |
The Bucks and Clippers each won more games by 20 points or more (12) than they did by five points or less (9). Milwaukee and LA were tied with Golden State for the second-most wins by 20+ points, trailing only Utah with 14 such wins.
| TEAM | CLUTCH WIN% | W-L (+/-5 PTS) | W (20+ PTS) |
| DAL | 18-15 (0.545) (10) | 11-6 | 6 |
| LAC | 16-18 (0.471) (19) | 9-10 | 12 |
Of the four first-round matchups that tip off on Saturday, Dallas is the only lower-seeded team to have a better record in games decided by five points or less than the higher seed.
| TEAM | CLUTCH WIN% | W-L (+/-5 PTS) | W (20+ PTS) |
| BOS | 17-26 (0.395) (27) | 12-12 | 5 |
| BKN | 27-13 (0.675) (3) | 15-8 | 8 |
The Celtics (43) and Nets (40) rank first and third, respectively, in clutch games this season, including two against one another. The Nets took both of those games, outscoring the Celtics by 13 points in four clutch minutes.
| TEAM | CLUTCH WIN% | W-L (+/-5 PTS) | W (20+ PTS) |
| POR | 24-13 (0.649) (4) | 15-11 | 8 |
| DEN | 18-13 (0.581) (6) | 12-8 | 9 |
The Blazers have the top clutch scorer in the league in Damian Lillard (162 points in 126 clutch minutes); the Blazers have outscored their opponents by 100 points with Lillard on the court in clutch time. Nikola Jokic ranks fourth in clutch scoring with 131 points.
3. The Kerr Stats
During an appearance on the Bill Simmons Podcast back in 2017, Warriors head coach Steve Kerr revealed the three stats he looks at when he first looks at a box score: Opponent FG%, Assists, Turnovers. To put everyone on the same level, let’s look at opponent effective field goal percentage, assist percentage and turnover percentage for these matchups.
| TEAM | OPP EFG% | AST% | TOV% |
| MIA | 54.2% (19) | 67.1% (2) | 14.4% (21) |
| MIL | 53.6% (13) | 56.9% (25) | 13.4% (13) |
The disparity in assist percentage really stands out in the Miami vs. Milwaukee matchup. While the Heat use the pass to create shot opportunities, the Bucks rank third in isolation possessions (9.8 per game) and isolation scoring (9.7 ppg) this season, according to Synergy. The Bucks average the second-fewest passes per game (254.8), according to Second Spectrum, but when they do pass they have the highest assist-to-pass percentage, with 10% of their passes resulting in an assist.
| TEAM | OPP EFG% | AST% | TOV% |
| DAL | 53.4% (11) | 55.7% (28) | 12.3% (3) |
| LAC | 53.1% (8) | 58.4% (21) | 13.5% (14) |
Why does Dallas rank 28th in assist percentage? How about because Luka Doncic ranks in the top six in scoring on both isolation plays (4.8 ppg, 6th) and as the ball handler in pick-and-roll sets (13.3 ppg, 2nd), according to Synergy. While the Clippers finished the season eighth in opponent effective field goal percentage (53.1), in their three games against Dallas they allowed an eFG% of 59.2% – the third-highest percentage they allowed to any opponent this season.
| TEAM | OPP EFG% | AST% | TOV% |
| BOS | 53.9% (16) | 56.6% (27) | 14.1% (18) |
| BKN | 53.1% (9) | 62.1% (10) | 13.4% (12) |
James Harden is simultaneously one of the game’s top isolation players (his 8.7 ppg on isos led all players by 3.3 ppg, according to Synergy) and one of the game’s top playmakers (he averaged 10.9 assists in his 36 games in Brooklyn). Harden has plenty of targets for his assists; in addition to having two of the league’s most dynamic and gifted scorers in Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant, the Nets also have the league’s top 3-point shooter in Joe Harris, who shot 47.5% from beyond the arc this season.
| TEAM | OPP EFG% | AST% | TOV% |
| POR | 54.6% (22) | 51.5% (30) | 11.2% (1) |
| DEN | 54.5% (21) | 62.1% (11) | 13.6% (15) |
The Blazers averaged the fewest passes of any team in the league (244.6) by more than 10 passes per game. With fewer passes come fewer assist opportunities, which results in the lowest assist rate in the league. However, fewer passes also means fewer deflections and steals from opponents as the Blazers have the league’s lowest turnover percentage.
