Tyrese Maxey rose up the rankings last season, but can he keep it up in 2022-23?
The 2022-23 NBA season is fast approaching, which means it’s time to start getting ready for your fantasy basketball drafts. Fantasy analyst Dan Titus is putting in the work on his draft rankings as well as his position-by-position tiers — he hits the shooting guards below — to help you be prepared when you’re on the clock.
Not every player will have analysis when listed in the tiers below. Players with multi-position eligibility will only show up in the positional tier story they have the most minutes at.
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Tier 1: The Elite
Booker enters the 2022-2023 season as the top shooting guard in fantasy after posting the highest player efficiency rating (PER) of his career and finishing in the top 20 on a per-game basis last season. He earned All-NBA first-team honors and will again be an excellent source for points, threes, assists and free-throw percentage. He’s eclipsed a 32 percent usage rate in three of the last four seasons and had the fewest number of turnovers per game since his rookie season. He’ll be an early second-round fantasy draft pick but has the potential for first-round value.
An elbow injury limited Paul George to only 31 games last season, but he was very effective before going down. He was 16th on a per-game basis thanks to his ability to stuff the stat sheet, but he struggled with his efficiency. Despite a career-high 32.9 usage rate, he shot the lowest true shooting percentage in his career (.538) and averaged 4.2 turnovers per contest. With Kawhi Leonard back and the Clippers adding more 3-and-D wings at last year’s trade deadline, George should improve in those areas and be a top-20 player again this season.
The Hawks will look different this season thanks to the arrival of All-Star combo guard Dejounte Murray. Murray was a league winner last season after putting up a ridiculous 21.9 points, 8.3 rebounds and 9.2 assists per game while leading the league in steals. He finished seventh on a per-game basis last year, but it will be hard to replicate those assist numbers alongside Trae Young. Still, look for Murray to rack up a ton of counting stats and be one of the best sources of steals in fantasy basketball.
Anthony Edwards is the lone member of the elite class of shooting guards who did not achieve top-30 status last year (he finished 44th). However, I think Edwards is poised to break out in his third NBA season.
He improved in almost every category last year while playing a healthy 34.2 minutes per game. The Wolves’ depth chart took a hit when they acquired Rudy Gobert this offseason, so expect Edwards to log heavy minutes again this season. He’s a unique talent who will be a reliable source of points, threes, steals and blocks at the guard position.
Few would have projected the Cavaliers to land Donovan Mitchell this offseason, but here we are. Mitchell joins All-Star G Darius Garland in the backcourt in what should be a very exciting, fantasy-friendly Cleveland team. At the center of it all will be Mitchell — a bonafide star who has averaged at least 25.0 points, 4.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists with a high volume of threes in his past two seasons. The change of scenery may take some adjusting, but he should still see a 30% usage rate on his new team. He finished 25th last season, and I expect him to be in the top 30 yet again.
Tier 2: All-Star Caliber
Scary Terry continues to be one of the most underrated fantasy basketball players. He finished 30th on a per-game basis last season. Rozier has a low turnover rate (16th best in the NBA last season) but also chips in all categories except for blocks and field-goal percentage. His current ADP is in the fifth round despite providing second-round value for most of last season. He should continue to thrive as the top-scoring option in Charlotte this season.
Third-year pro Maxey continues his ascension up the rising stars ladder. He was in the conversation for Most Improved Player last season (and rightfully so) after totaling 17.5 points, 3.2 rebounds, 4.3 assists, with 1.8 threes, 1.1 stocks (steals plus blocks) and 48/43/87 shooting splits. There is some uncertainty of how much he’ll be involved in the offense, with Joel Embiid and James Harden soaking up a ton of usage, but there’s still plenty of fantasy appeal. Maxey’s quickness and ability to finish at the rim make him virtually unguardable in transition, but he can also thrive off the ball and knock down perimeter shots efficiently. Oh, and he has one of the lowest assist-to-turnover ratios in the league at 3.14 to 1.
I expect Doc Rivers will stagger the point guard minutes between Maxey and Harden, so he should also increase his assist chances. His current ADP is in the 6th round, but I’ve been grabbing him in the fifth to make sure I land one of the best young guards in the league.
Tier 3: Youth Movement
I shared my thoughts on Giddey in my point guard tiers article since he’ll be logging heavy minutes at both point guard and shooting guard this season.
The second-overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft finished second in scoring among rookies last season at 17.3 ppg. However, I think Green will offer even more fantasy value this season. After the All-Star break, Green posted encouraging numbers of 22.1 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 3.1 threes with a 58.9 true shooting percentage compared to only 14.6 points, 3.1 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.9 threes and a 51.6 true shooting percentage before the break. He finished No. 195 on a per-game basis last season, so I expect him to make a substantive leap this season. He has All-Star aspirations in Year 2 and has put in the work this summer. Green said at Media Day that he spent the offseason working on “a lot of catch-and-shoot, ball-handling, pick-and-roll, getting to my spots, isolation.”
He’ll be the primary scoring option for the Rockets, and after putting on 10 pounds of muscle, he should be able to lock in better defensively and use his strength to finish with contact. His ADP is currently in the 7th round and makes for a high upside mid-round pick.
The void left by Dejounte Murray’s and Derrick White’s departures is significant, but I’m sold on Devin Vassell reaping the benefits. His current ADP stands at 93.7, an eighth-round selection — which is too low. He finished 92nd on a per-game basis last season with an 18.9 usage rate. Like many young shooting guards, his value was hampered by shooting only 42% from the field last season. However, he and Keldon Johnson will be the primary offensive weapons for a rebuilding Spurs team. He’ll look to build off of an encouraging second season when he produced 1.7 stocks and hit 1.9 threes while also shooting a solid 84% from the charity stripe. I’m projecting his numbers to go up across the board, which makes him a steal at his current ADP in the eighth round.
Tier 4: Serviceable starting SGs
Raptors head coach Nick Nurse runs a tight rotation, and it’s no surprise that Gary Trent Jr. had his best season as a pro in 2021-22 after registering over 35 minutes per night. He’s locked in as the starting shooting guard this year and should be a consistent source of points, threes and steals. His 1.7 steals per game ranked third in the NBA but make sure to plan for his low field-goal percentage when drafting him in the eighth round.
One thing we learned from Monday’s Media Day is that Spencer Dinwiddie projects to be the starting shooting guard for the Mavs this season. Dinwiddie was traded to the Mavs as part of a deal that sent Kristaps Porzingis to Washington last year. He proved to be an effective scorer off the bench but with Jalen Brunson now in New York, Dinwiddie moves up the depth chart to a starting gig. He averaged 15.8 points, 3.1 rebounds and 3.9 assists on an uncharacteristic 50% from the field for the Mavs last year so, with an increase in minutes into the 30s, Dinwiddie is a late-round pick who could outperform his ADP in the 11th round.
Tier 5: Microwave buckets off the bench
Tier 6: Young bench players who are an injury away
The 2022 Summer League did a great job of showcasing Grimes. Evan Fournier is the de facto starter because he’s making $18M per season, but I think he’s on notice. Summer League stats aren’t everything, but there’s a chance Grimes supplants Fournier if the latter struggles again this season. Grimes is a two-way player, and the Knicks would be wise to give him more playing time. He finished the Summer League averaging 22.6 points with 4.2 rebounds and 4.0 assists across five games, earning All-Summer League first-team honors.
