2023 Playoffs: East Final | Celtics (2) vs. Heat (8)

3 things to watch when Celtics host Heat in Game 2

Will Jayson Tatum go matchup hunting in Game 2? And can Miami win a game without outlier shooting?

With the Heat holding a 1-0 lead in the Eastern Conference finals, the Celtics are confident they can pull it back even as Miami refuses to back down.

We’ve been here before. A year ago, the Miami Heat had a 1-0 series lead over the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference finals, having come back from 13 points down in Game 1.

This year’s series is the same, but different in that the Heat got their Game 1 victory on the road. So the Celtics, having already lost home-court advantage, should be more desperate to win Game 2. The last 16 Game 2s in this scenario (road team won Game 1) have been won by the home team, with the average margin of victory being 17.3 points.

One of those 16 Game 2s was the Celtics’ 34-point victory over Philadelphia in the conference semis, and two of them were losses from the Heat in these playoffs. But Miami, playing without Jimmy Butler two weeks ago, led Game 2 in New York in the fourth quarter and lost by just six. If the Heat can keep this Game 2 close, they’ll do so believing (for good reason) that they’re the more hardened team in regard to clutch situations.

Here are three things to watch in Game 2 on Friday (8:30 p.m. ET, TNT)…


1. Tatum targeting

Jayson Tatum and Duncan Robinson were both on the floor for about six and a half minutes in Game 1, with the Celtics having 14 offensive possessions in that time. But not once did the guy Robinson was guarding set a ball-screen for the Celtics’ star. Tatum is one of the biggest weak-defender seekers in the league and, among defenders in the Heat’s rotation, Robinson has the biggest target on his chest. So it was a surprise that Boston didn’t seek out that matchup right away.

Tatum still had a strong scoring game, scoring 30 points on 9-for-17 from the field and 11-for-11 from the line. Also, after missing both of his shots in the first half, Robinson didn’t play after halftime. But the Celtics could have been more purposeful with their offense in the fourth quarter, when the window was still open for them to come back.

While Tatum scored efficiently, he had one assist and four turnovers (three in the fourth). Miami showed him extra defenders without committing to a double-team (until he gets into the paint), which didn’t give him obvious decisions to make with the ball…

Miami Heat defense vs. Jayson Tatum

Tatum did try to attack Max Strus a couple of times in that fourth quarter, but Strus was able to stay in front.

“I know they’re going to keep doing it,” Strus said Thursday, “but these are the moments I want to be in. That’s why I’m on the floor. I’m ready for the challenge and I believe in myself and my team to have my back when I’m in those positions. I’m not going to shy away from the moment.”


2. Heat will (probably) need to find another way

The Heat shot 10-for-15 (67%) from mid-range and 16-for-31 (52%) from 3-point range in Game 1. That’s definitely unsustainable and probably unrepeatable.

“I wouldn’t say we’re accepting that,” Kyle Lowry said Thursday, “because we think we can do it. At the same time, we know we can win games all types of ways.”

Belief in the ability to shoot better than 50% from outside the paint only goes so far, so the Heat will likely have to find other ways to win going forward, either scoring more inside (or at the line) or, more likely, defending better. The Celtics’ 116 points on 97 possessions was the third most efficient performance against the Heat in these playoffs.

“We’ve had to do that all season long,” Spoelstra said. “We’ve had to win with a lot of different identities and different ways to find solutions. And that’s likely what’s going to happen in this series.

“You have to try to get to your ‘A’ game, but [the Celtics] are going to have something to say about that. And if we don’t get to that, we still have to find a way to get the job done.”


3. Big minutes

After dropping Game 1 at home, the Celtics must focus on the details and defense to forge a series tie.

One game is a small sample size, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla makes a quick change to his starting lineup. The Celtics’ big lineup — with Robert Williams and Al Horford together — was critical to their wins in Games 6 and 7 of the conference semis, but was outscored by 10 points (with rough numbers on both ends of the floor) in 8.7 minutes on Wednesday.

Mazzulla subbed Horford out less than four minutes into the third quarter, with the Heat having begun the second half on a 15-6 run. He didn’t go back to the two-big configuration after that. Malcolm Brogdon and Derrick White (the starter for the Celtics’ first 11 playoff games) both played well off the bench, combining to score 30 points on 11-for-20 shooting.

The Heat, meanwhile, struggled without Bam Adebayo, getting outscored by 11 points (allowing 33 points on 24 defensive possessions) in the 11:03 in which he was on the bench. Cody Zeller remains a foul magnet and there was no rim protection in the couple of minutes in which they played Kevin Love at the five.

Butler played more than 43 minutes in Game 1, never coming off the floor in the second half. Adebayo played just 37, but if his off-court minutes continue to be a struggle, they could be reduced quite a bit.

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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Twitter.

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