WNBA Win Totals: 3 Mid-Season Value Bets to Make

Action Network contributor Jim Turvey gives his updated betting leans and picks for every WNBA win total through the quarter mark of the season.

With a two-day gap in the WNBA schedule thanks to the typical Monday with no games and the Fourth of July holiday on Tuesday, the books were kind enough to post some WNBA futures. The WNBA futures market is one of the most fun and lucrative markets to play in.

Of the five best bets from our preseason win totals, three are tracking in the right direction, with the other two actually sitting at the exact same line as the season opener.

That means we’re in good shape, and can potentially even leverage those preseason bets to our benefit here at the one-third mark of the season.

Without further ado, let’s dig into these win totals. For each team, I’ll note their preseason win total; their current record; their current win total; and whether we want to bet it at all.

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Bets & Leans

Atlanta Dream

  • Preseason win total: 18.5
  • Current record: 7-8
  • Current win total: 18.5 (o-120/u-102, FanDuel)

The Dream are one of our preseason over bets that has stayed right in line. I would suggest bettors who did not get in on them preseason get a taste at that same 18.5 number, but for bettors who already got this number, it’s not so egregious that it needs to be bet again.

Chicago Sky

  • Preseason win total: 16.5
  • Current record: 8-9
  • Current win total: 17.5 (o-125/u-106, BetRivers)

This was a preseason under lean, and to be honest, I still feel alright about this. However, with a new coach in town, I’m just sitting this win total out as well. Emre Vatansever collected a win in his WNBA debut, but obviously we need a much bigger sample to know what we’re looking at here.

Connecticut Sun

  • Preseason win total: 21.5
  • Current record: 12-5
  • Current win total: 27.5 (o+100/u-132, BetRivers)

This was the favorite preseason bet, and it has proven sentient. The Sun are more than halfway to the over and are even tracking to pass our “To win 25+ games” bet with ease. However, there are a few cracks in our beautiful Mona Lisa bet (shoutout to Dano Mataya for the art-bet comps).

They lost Brionna Jones to a season-ending injury, and whenever I would hand out Sun futures during the preseason, my one worry was how they’d handle injuries because the depth isn’t as strong as years past. Now, the Sun won their first two games without Jones with relative ease, but they lost their last two.

Of course, those losses came to the Aces and Liberty, so we shouldn’t be too worried, but I do think this team is now very vulnerable to injury, which is one of the biggest factors I look at when it comes to futures. I wouldn’t suggest fading the Sun hard, but if you did get in on that “To win 25+ games” bet, what I would do is sprinkle on the Sun under 27.5 to cover however much you bet as the base for that “To win 25+ games” bet.

Dallas Wings

  • Preseason win total: 20.5
  • Current record: 8-8
  • Current win total: 18.5 (o-110/u-110, Bet365)

This is the first of two times in this article I’m going to do something seemingly strange. This was a Dallas team whose under was a preseason best bet. This bet has us in a nice position because, ironically, I now am looking at their over.

This team has seemed to turn the corner of late. In the past two weeks, they have the third-best Net Rating, and that coincides nicely with Teaira McCowan returning from overseas.

What I missed in the preseason was the breakout of Satou Sabally. She had yet to prove a full season of health — which is still a fair question just a third of the way through the season. But what can’t be questioned is her breakout on the court. If Sabally is the player she has been so far this season, this is at least a .500 team, which gives us a nice two-win chance to middle our preseason bet and this current number.

If you were able to get under 20.5 in the preseason, and you bet over 18.5 wins now, if they end the season at either 19 or 20 wins (the win range I project them most likely to end up at), we win both bets. If not, we do eat into our winnings a bit because of the juice the books take, but overall I think this is a solid opportunity to attempt a middle.

Bet: Over 18.5 wins (-110, Bet365)

Indiana Fever

  • Preseason win total: 10.5
  • Current record: 5-11
  • Current win total: 15.5 (o+100/u-128, FanDuel)

This was arguably the worst read of the preseason. I had this team total under 10.5 as a lean, but they are nearly halfway there already. Aliyah Boston has been an absolute revelation in her rookie season, and although I still lean towards an under on their current win total (they are super fun, but they struggle to actually close out wins), I’m just staying instead. Not letting Aliyah steal more of my money because I am an idiot doubting her.

Las Vegas Aces

  • Preseason win total: 29.5
  • Current record: 15-1
  • Current win total: 35.5 (o-113/u-113, FanDuel)

This was a lean to the over, and it’s looking like a cruise to the over. Honestly, the over is still tempting, even at that comical number posted right now, but the fear is they lock things up so early that they have no need to care about the last few weeks of the season. With the margins as thin as they are (only four losses all season allowed!!), I’m content to sit this one out right now.

Los Angeles Sparks

  • Preseason win total: 16.5
  • Current record: 7-10
  • Current win total: 16.5 (o-111/u-115, FanDuel)

This line hasn’t moved since the preseason, which is fitting because it felt like we had no clue about this team then, and we have no clue about this team now.

If Lexie Brown and Jordin Canada return, I love them to surpass this number (I liked the over in the preseason too). But if either or both remain out (and the rumors are swirling that they might), this team could be content to pack things up and get one of those coveted top picks for next year’s draft.

Stay Away

Minnesota Lynx

  • Preseason win total: 17.5
  • Current record: 7-9
  • Current win total: 15.5 (0-115/u-105, Bet365)

This was one of my favorite unders of the preseason, and even though the current win total is lower than the preseason, it’s a bet I feel quite shaky about.

It looked like a great bet up until about a month ago, as they started the season 1-7 and were the worst team in the W. However, in the time since, they are 6-2, and especially with Diamond Miller having returned to the lineup looking like an absolute killer (see: this week’s player props piece), I actually like the over here.

Now, because I bet the under in the preseason, and did so with some juice, I think I have to just ride it out. It is a two-win middle, but it’s a very juicy one at that. Plus, this is as star-dependent a team as you’ll find in the league — they are one Collier injury away from being easily the worst team in the league.

That being said, if you didn’t bet the preseason under, I don’t hate a sprinkle on the over right now.

Bet: Lynx over 15.5 (-115 Bet365)

New York Liberty

  • Preseason win total: 29.5
  • Current record: 11-4
  • Current win total: 30.5 (o+114/u-146, FanDuel)

Weirdly, not much has changed for this team in this market since the start of the season. The over 29.5 was a best bet that I’m content to let ride, but also wouldn’t suggest adding to at this point.

Phoenix Mercury

  • Preseason win total: 21.5
  • Current record: 3-12
  • Current win total: 12.5

The Mercury were the lone stay away team before the season, but they’ve been the biggest disappointment in the W.

There’s still plenty about this team that screams “stay away,” however, and it’s no surprise that their win total isn’t even offered at some of the books offering these bets right now.

The talent is still there (to a degree), and they have a new coach. Plus, there’s the possibility that at any second Skylar Diggins Smith could reappear and make this a somewhat interesting team.

Still Stay Away

Seattle Storm

  • Preseason win total: 14.5
  • Current record: 4-12
  • Current win total: 11.5 (o-105/u-115, Bet365)

Alright, here’s our other middle, and it’s also my best bet of the article.

The Storm under was arguably my favorite bet before the season, but if you listened to the BUCKETS podcast, you’ll know it came with a little caveat: Wait to see what happens with Gabby Williams.

Well, Williams hasn’t been here all season, and the Storm have struggled (hence the three-win drop in the win total from preseason to now).

However, Williams is back in the States, and the WNBA has approved her to play in the W this season after all, and suddenly this team looks intriguing. Jewell Loyd has been a one-woman wrecking crew on the offensive end this season, scoring even more than this writer (who wrote about a hypothetical “Jewell Loyd to lead the league in scoring bet that he is furious never got offered by the books) imagined.

Ezi Magbegor is having the breakout that many saw possible, and Ivana Dojkic has been the fun unknown to pop for the Storm.

Really all this team needs is a defensive-first, kind of all-around contributor on the wing… What’s that? That’s the exact type of player Gabby Williams is?

I’m really excited to see what this Storm team can do with Gabby, and even though it makes me nervous for the preseason under that I did end up making because there was no Williams news at the time, a three-win middle is delicious, and one that I am jumping all over.

I very much recommend this bet regardless of whether you have a previous position or not.

Bet: Over 11.5 wins (-105 Bet365)

Washington Mystics

  • Preseason win total: 24.5
  • Current record: 9-7
  • Current win total: 22.5 (0-115/u-115, BetRivers)

The Mystics appear to be in rough shape for this over right now, as they are just 9-7 and missing their entire frontcourt.

However, this team has gotten a bit unlucky, and while Elena Delle Donne and Shakira Austin are both on the shelf right now, neither is a serious injury, and both could be back within a week or two.

Injuries are the hardest part to project when it comes to the futures market (though backing deep teams is never a bad idea), so I’ll stay away from a team currently in the midst of an injury swoon.