How ’bout them favorites?!
Ok, it wasn’t quite as fun a run in the Game 2s, but we were on board with staying away from the spreads and moneylines in those games anyway and with six of the 10 bets handed out here last time winning (thanks A’ja!), I think we’ll survive those home favorites evening up both series … even if you tailed the original underdog double dip here.
Now, after what feels like a full week off — can we please move these games a little closer together? It feels like there’s absolutely no continuity whatsoever in these series right now.
Both series have provided plenty of entertainment as three of the four games went down to the wire.
Now, we get to see if the two best home teams during the regular season can close these series without even letting the favorites return home for what would be a pair of must-watch Game 5s.
Let’s get into it.
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WNBA Odds & Picks
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|Sky vs. Sun Game 3||1 p.m. ET|
|Aces vs. Storm Game 3||3 p.m. ET|
Sky vs. Sun Game 3 Odds
|Moneyline||-110 / -110|
|Time | TV||1 p.m. ET | ESPN2|
|Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute WNBA odds here.|
Both teams will have the same roster of players have had all series.
Can Connecticut bounce back?
In Game 2, Chicago looked like the absolute title winner. The final score showed the Sky winning only by eight, but that was not an accurate portrait of the game. They picked apart the Sun defense with incredible ball movement and were suffocating on the other side of the ball. The Sky even held the Sun to just seven offensive rebounds.
The thing with Chicago, however, has never been the ceiling. It’s been about how consistently they can jump up and touch that ceiling. The Sky are almost as scary to bet on as they are to bet against.
As of this writing, you can get Chicago to win the series in five at +200 at DraftKings. If you believe, like I do, the Sky are the best team in the league (despite their inconsistencies), this is a great value play. There’s certainly a world in which they simply flipped the switch in this series and James Wade and the team figured out the Sun after dropping Game 1, just like they did in the first round against the Liberty. However, that was only two games. Including Game 2, the Sky would need to turn in three straight dominant performances and I see them losing their focus once along the way.
The Sun are also an incredibly talented team and they were my pick at the beginning of the series.
That being said, I have come around to the Sky after having seen how they responded in Game 2. I don’t want to bet their series price, however, (-140 at PointsBet), I really like that +200 Sky-in-five pick.
However, I do want to leave you with some actionable notes for Game 3.
I like one bet on the board for this Game 3 matchup: Connecticut Sun team total under 82 (-110) at PointsBet.
The Sun have cleared this total only once in the postseason so far. Tied to that, but more of a lean because the Sky offense did look electric at times in Game 2, I like the overall under. I’m a little nervous because this line came out at 163.5, a number Game 1 went easily under, while Game 2 only came close because of a garbage time fourth quarter.
Is this a case of Vegas being asleep at the wheel, or do some sharps see this differently?
Pick: Sun team total under 82
Leans: Under 163.5; Chicago Sky series exact, 3-2 (+200 at DraftKings)
Aces vs. Storm Game 3 Odds
|Moneyline||-105 / -115|
|Time | TV||3 p.m. ET | ABC|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute WNBA odds here.|
There are two very key injuries to monitor leading up to tip: Gabby Williams (concussion), who has missed the first two games of the series for Seattle, and Dearica Hamby (knee), who has been out nearly four weeks with a bone contusion for the Aces. In a game (and series) as tight as this, either player could be a huge deal.
Best vs Best
Wow, this series has lived up to the hype. Game 2 was everything a basketball fan could hope for as it was showdown of the two best players in the sport — both at their absolute peak — going right at each other over and over.
In a game that barely cleared 150 total points, the two stars combined for 65 points, 20 rebounds, six blocks and four assists.
Breanna Stewart topped A’ja Wilson by one on the scoreboard, but it was Wilson got the W. Will we see more of that in Game 3?
I’m leaning toward the Storm. In the first two games of the series, Seattle has combined to shoot 11-of-43 from deep (25.6%), a far cry from its regular season total (36.1%).
If the Aces were known for their three-point defense, that’d be one thing. However, if you read the series preview, you know that is not the case. The Aces actually gave up more three-pointers than any other team in the league this season. While some of this could be the Aces post-season defense tightening up and a tiny bit could be Seattle shooting worse in a big series (though that seems highly unlikely given the experience of their roster), it feels far more likely the Storm are due for a bit of positive regression.
Add in the fact that the Storm were excellent at home this year (13-5 with an 8.1 net rating) and I’m going with Seattle on the moneyline.
I could really regret going down with this ship, but in line with my thinking the Storm are due to hit a higher percentage of their threes, I’m going to play the over once again, despite the Game 1 and 2 totals not even coming close to sniffing this line. Tail at your own risk.
Pick: Seattle -115 (play to -140)
Lean: Over 167 (BetRivers)