Thursday’s WNBA slate features a trio of games tipping off at 10 p.m. ET, including a battle between the two best teams in the Eastern and Western Conference: Liberty vs. Aces, Fever vs. Mercury and Lynx vs. Storm.
I have a bet for all three of tonight’s games, including two stars. Here’s how I’m betting WNBA player props today.
WNBA Player Props & Picks
A’ja Wilson, Over 9.5 Rebounds (-120)
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | Prime Video|
This feels like a trap, but I’m falling for it.
Wilson’s gone over this line in six straight games and in eight of her last nine showings. So am I just going to sit here and not pounce on this at a reasonable number?
My only concern is the frontline of Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones engineering the league’s second-best rebounding team per 100 possessions. However, the Liberty are middle of the road in both offensive and defensive rebound-percentage – the Aces are worse on the offensive glass but third in defensive board percentage, largely because of Wilson, who is second in total rebounding percentage.
And, again, 10-plus boards is six straight games. At -120, it’s too good to pass up. If this goes to 10, which I’d expect, I’d still play it. If it heads to 10.5 by tip-off, I’m eyeing Kelsey Plum over 17.5 points (-110 as of this writing) – truthfully, I might play both anyway.
Brittney Griner, Over 18.5 Points (-110)
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | NBA TV|
Brittney Griner had her season-high 29 points against the Indiana Fever on June 11, primarily because – with respect to Aaliyah Boston, who was on the receiving end of a bunch of those buckets – no one had an answer for her.
Griner was able to get in post position repeatedly with little resistance, and when there was any, it didn’t matter. Her power was intentional, her footwork was pristine, and her precision was unrivaled. Her 29 came on a 9-of-13 shooting display, and she also scored a season-high 11 points from the free throw line on 12 attempts.
I’m not expecting the exact same level of dominance, but I’m not sure the Fever could hold Griner under 20 if the Mercury play through her 80% as much as they did well over two weeks ago.
Griner had 20 against the Dallas Wings two nights ago, a bounce back performance while returning from a hip injury suffered against the Seattle Storm on June 13.
Kayla McBride, Over 12.5 Points (-110)
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | CBS Sports|
Usually I’d stay away from a play on someone who has been this level of up and down through the first two months of the season, but I’ll bet on the real Kayla McBride being the one from before June 18 – and who we saw against this same Seattle Storm earlier this week drop 18 points.
McBride had a six-game stretch of averaging 15.7 points per game on 44% shooting, and only hit 32% from the 3-point line during that stretch (the 93% on free throws on 2.5 attempts per game definitely helped).
But sure, let’s not just ignore the three-game stretch where she averaged 5.3 points on 31% shooting (22% on 3s) following that. Still, we’ll bet on the 18 against the Storm – and the earlier referenced six-game stretch, as being translatable to our bet tonight.
McBride’s gone over 12.5 five times in her last 10. In her 18 against the Storm, she also shot 13 times, her most in five games – and at that point, her average was exactly 13 field goal attempts per game. Hopefully, for the sake of the bet, we’re progressing to the mean, and McBride is able to fly off-screens and catch and shoot her way to at least 13 points, as she’s done for the past decade.