Sun vs. Aces Odds
|Over/Under||169.5 (-110 / -110)|
|Moneyline||+250 / -200|
|Time||3 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute WNBA odds here.|
Alright, we are all on sports overload these days, so let’s cut right to the chase. We know these teams, let’s not waste words on introductions!
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In the regular season, the Sun allowed the second fewest points per game (77.8). However, that number has dropped even lower in the postseason, with the Sun stifling the opposition and holding the Wings and Sky — two of the four highest-scoring regular season offenses in the WNBA — to just 72.8 points per game.
Now, they get the stiffest test of them all, the team that (easily) led the W in points per game: the Las Vegas Aces.
The Aces score in a variety of ways. They play at the fastest pace in the league, but their high point totals aren’t just the result of running up and down the court. They also led the league in three-point field goal percentage and took the third-most threes in the W. Las Vegas also finished third in both free throws attempted and fastbreak points.
Here’s the thing, though. The Sun defense is dominant in all three of those areas. Only one team (the Storm) allowed fewer fastbreak points to their opposition or surrendered a lower percentage from beyond the arc. When it comes to not fouling their opponents, only the Storm and Sky handed out fewer free throws per game.
Now, I trust A’ja Wilson, Kelsie Plum, Jackie Young and Co. will still be able to function, but I don’t think it’s going to be at the same high efficiency we are used to seeing.
Let’s go to the Aces side and talk about how their defense matches up with the Sun offense because I think the defenses are going to be set the tone for this series.
Las Vegas Aces
The Aces also line up quite well with how their opponent scores the ball.
The Sun led the league in several offensive categories this season: Points off turnovers, second-chance points and fastbreak points (which is honestly related to points off turnovers). They also ranked second in free throw attempts per game as well as points in the paint and two-point field goal percentage. They also ranked third in three-point field goal percentage. There’s a reason they are in the Finals!
So how do the Aces match-up defensively? Pretty well.
Las Vegas allowed the fewest points off turnovers in the league, the second-fewest second-chance points, third fewest points in the paint and the fourth-fewest fastbreak points. However, they were middle of the pack when it came to overall two-point defense and when it comes to opponent three-point shooting, they were actually third-worst in the league.
Now, at times I can fall victim to putting too much emphasis on how teams match up. To zoom out, there’s a very good chance that if you were to rank the players in this series 1 to 24, the Aces would have each of the top three — at least if you believe what Chelsea Gray is doing to be sustainable.
The Aces also have a massive backcourt advantage, a slight rest and games played advantage (although that’s a little bit of a misnomer given that A’ja Wilson player more minutes in the semis than all but one Sun player) and they have the home-court advantage.
Sun vs. Aces Pick
All things being equal, I would pick the Aces to win this series. Of course, that’s not how betting works.
The Aces are around -300 at most books, implying a 75% chance of winning the series. That’s just too high for me. That being said, I don’t love-love the Sun side of it either. I am indeed going to play a unit on the Sun at a +240 series price, but that’s half of my standard series amount. The other half of that I am going to put on the series to go over 4.5 games (available at +164 at BetRivers).
What I do love-love, at least for Game 1, is the under. I am going to make that the best bet and it’s probably not surprising given how I laid out how both teams match up defensively.
Picks: Connecticut series line +240; Game 1 under 169.5; Series over 4.5 games +164