WNBA Best Bets: 3 Picks for Aces vs. Sun, More Tuesday Games

Action Network WNBA betting analyst Michael Arinze previews Tuesday's slate of games: Storm vs. Lynx, Sky vs. Dream and Aces vs. Sun.

We’re less than a month away from the end of the WNBA regular season, and the playoff picture is starting to take shape. Previously, the Indiana Fever held the prize for the most dysfunctional team for much of the season, but I’d have to say that distinction now belongs to the Atlanta Dream.

Atlanta looked like a playoff contender earlier in the season, but it’s now mired in an eight-game losing streak — with five of those losses being by double digits. It hasn’t helped that the team indefinitely suspended one of its best players in Chennedy Carter for conduct detrimental to the team.

We’re still not sure what caused the suspension because obtaining any information from the Dream has been harder than conducting a Greg Popovich interview.

If the situation has deteriorated that much for the Dream, one would have thought that Atlanta might have tried to move her before the trade deadline. Somehow, the deadline came and went without so much as a whimper from Atlanta or the other 11 teams.

This feels like a bad relationship that’s run its course. At this point, a fresh start would probably be the best thing for both sides.

I told myself that I wasn’t going to discuss this suspension until we heard from both sides. However, I still can’t believe it’s been an ongoing matter for this long.

Let’s see what happens on Tuesday night with the Dream hosting the Sky. That’s just one of the three games on my Tuesday card, so let’s jump right into the matchups.

Projected WNBA Odds

Matchup Time Proj. Spread Proj. Total
Storm vs. Lynx 7 p.m. ET Storm -3.93 165.69
Sky vs. Dream 7 p.m. ET Sky -8.13 165.50
Aces vs. Sun 7 p.m. ET Aces -2.13 158.97

Storm vs. Lynx

Storm Odds -4.5
Lynx Odds +4.5
Over/Under 165.5 (-110/-110)
Time Tuesday, 7 p.m. ET
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon and via DraftKings.

Injuries & News

There are no players listed on Seattle’s injury report.

Rennia Davis is the only player on Minnesota’s injury report. The ninth overall pick in the 2021 draft is done for the season following a stress fracture in her left foot during training camp.

A Teaser To Consider

The Minnesota Lynx might still be Sylvia Fowles’ team, but we’ve started to see glimpses of her already passing the torch to third-year player Napheesa Collier. Collier was named to her second All-Star team this year and leads the team with 16.3 points per game. Her absence at the beginning of the season was a big part of why the Lynx got off to a 0-3 start.

One of those games was a 90-78 loss in the front end of a home-and-home series with the Seattle Storm. Collier made her season debut in the second game of the series, but the result was the same: the Storm won 82-72.

That loss was Minnesota’s 11th straight defeat against Seattle in both the regular season and the playoffs. In fact, the Lynx are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games against the Storm.

For Minnesota to have a chance in this game, it’ll need to dial it up on defense because this team lacks the outside shooting to keep pace with a Seattle team that averages nine three-pointers per game. In contrast, Minnesota averages less than seven per game from the perimeter.

I think this line is just right as my model makes the Storm a 3.93 favorite in this matchup. While the Lynx have looked good with wins in nine of their last eleven games, including four victories over the Aces and Mercury, I strongly believe they match up poorly with Seattle.

I like the Storm in this spot as part of a two-leg 4.5 point teaser.

Pick: First Leg of two-team 4.5 point teaser (+103) with Storm from -4 to +0.5

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Sky vs. Dream

Sky Odds -6.5
Dream Odds +6.5
Over/Under 166.5 (-115/-105)
Time Tuesday, 7 p.m. ET
Odds as of Tuesday and via BetMGM

Injuries & News

Candace Parker (12.4 PPG, 8.6 RPG) is the only player on Chicago’s injury report. The reigning Defensive Player of the Year is doubtful with an injury to the same ankle that forced her to miss eight games earlier this season.

Atlanta lists two players on its injury report: Chennedy Carter (14.2 PPG) remains suspended indefinitely while Cheyenne Parker (10.2 PPG) is done for the season due to pregnancy.

The Sky Need Their Defense To Step Up With Parker Doubtful

Both teams are missing some key players, and all of them are likely to be out for the foreseeable future. With Parker out for the Sky, they lose their best defensive player and the person most responsible for setting the tempo for the team.

There’s no question that her injury affected Chicago in its last two games. Chicago is now one game under .500 (11-12) and in sixth place with a 1.5-game lead for the playoffs.

I think this game against the Dream should give them a chance to get back to the basics and focus more on their defense. Chicago has scored at least 80 points in four of its last five games, and it just has one win to show for its efforts.

Even though Atlanta is shorthanded, it still has very capable scorers in Courtney Williams and Tiffany Hayes.

I’m not sure Chicago wants to play this game in a shootout, and I think this total has plenty to do with both teams ranking third and fourth in terms of pace in the league. However, Atlanta is second-to-last with a 49.4 true shooting percentage.

In its last six games, Atlanta is 4-2 to the under and needed overtime to go over the total in one of those games. This number is too high for me, and the under is worth a look in this spot.

Pick: Under 167.5

Bonus: Second Leg of two-team 4.5 point teaser (+103) with the under from 167.5 to 172

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Aces vs. Sun

Aces Odds +2.5
Sun Odds -2.5
Over/Under 156.5 (-110/-110)
Time Tuesday, 7 p.m. ET
Odds as of Tuesday and via BetMGM

Injuries & News

Las Vegas lists two players on its injury report: Ji-Su Park is questionable with a hip injury, and Angel McCoughtry is done for the season after tearing her ACL during the preseason.

Alyssa Thomas is the only Connecticut player on the injury report. Thomas is unlikely to play this season after tearing her Achilles while playing overseas.

Connecticut Should Continue To Dictate Tempo

This game is easily the best matchup on the board as Connecticut welcomes Las Vegas to the Mohegan Sun Arena. Both teams have identical 17-6 records, but it was the Sun who came away with victories in the two previous meetings this season.

You have to admire what Connecticut can do every time it takes the court because of its ability to control the game’s tempo. It’s not often you see a team with the slowest pace (75.96 possessions per 40 minutes) in the league that’s also atop the standings.

They’re averaging roughly four fewer possessions than even the teams ranked in the middle of the league.

While the Sun grind out its possessions on offense, they’re also effective at grinding opponents almost to a complete halt on defense. Connecticut’s 93.8 defensive rating is the best in the league.

What’s also impressive is how Connecticut has been able to slow down an Aces team ranked with the fastest pace in the league (83.25 possessions per 40 minutes). Las Vegas failed to crack 70 points in the teams’ two meetings this season.

Note that the Aces are also the second-best defensive team with a 95.7 rating.

So we have two excellent defensive teams facing off in a game that likely will be played at Connecticut’s tempo. Both teams seem to play to their strengths on the interior, so we shouldn’t see a ton of three-point buckets in this contest.

Connecticut is 15-8 to the under this season, 8-3 to the under at home, and the under has cashed in seven of its last eight home games in this spot. I think we’ll see a similar outcome on Tuesday night.

Pick: Under 156.5 at BetMGM

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