Wednesday night brings a pair of Game 5s expected to be the end for two road teams, with both the Bulls and Nuggets huge underdogs facing 3-1 deficits. It’s always tricky playing props in a potential series-ending blowout, but that can also mean opportunity for the right players too.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Bobby Portis to Record a Double-Double (-105)
|Bulls vs. Bucks||Bucks -12|
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | TNT|
Bobby Portis has been starting the last two games for the Bucks with Khris Middleton sidelined, and he’s been fantastic. Milwaukee is playing a supersized lineup with Portis next to Brook Lopez and Giannis Antetokounmpo, and all that size has thoroughly overwhelmed the Bulls. The defending champs came to Chicago and blew the Bulls off the court, and Portis was a big part of that.
He showed out with 18 points and 16 rebounds in Game 3, including a huge game behind the arc with four 3-pointers. Game 4 wasn’t quite as dominant, but Portis still had 14 points and 10 rebounds. It was a second-straight double-double for the big man, and he’s now averaging 16.0 points and 13.0 rebounds in these two playoff starts.
He’s also done that in only 29 minutes per game, which is a bit deflated since both blowouts have meant a chance to rest late in the game. That could happen again here, of course, with the Bulls so shorthanded. But Portis is still a good bet to get his in the minutes that lead up to that, even if Milwaukee rolls again.
If you want to be a little more aggressive, you can play over 10.5 rebounds at +114, or you can play 12-plus at +158, both at FanDuel. The threat of a blowout means I’ll take the safer play and just go for the double-double and hope Portis keeps showing out.
Patrick Williams, Over 16.5 Points + Rebounds (-102)
|Bulls vs. Bucks||Bucks -12|
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | TNT|
Those poor shorthanded Bulls are going to have to turn somewhere. Zach LaVine looks like he’ll be out for at least Game 5 in health and safety protocols, and Lonzo Ball is still missing. Alex Caruso is questionable in concussion protocol too. That leaves DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic as the only remaining Bulls starters from a lineup that dominated so much to start the season, and it means Chicago needs help.
Patrick Williams stepped up in a big way in Game 4, so maybe it’s time for the sophomore to fly. It might have to be out of necessity. Williams hit a trio of 3s in Game 4 and racked up 20 points and 10 rebounds. He’s playing over 30 minutes a game the last three games, and he had a nice 10-point, nine-rebound outing in Game 2 too. And remember, LaVine and Caruso played both of those games.
Williams may not be ready for this stage yet against such a good team in an elimination game, but Chicago has nowhere else to turn to, so he’s going to get good minutes and volume. There’s also the chance this one gets away from Chicago, and that could be a perfect time for the Bulls to let their youngsters fly and get some extra playing time.
You’ve got a few options here, depending on how aggressive you’d like to be.
You can play just over 10.5 points at -110 or over 5.5 rebounds at +105. You can play those in a Same Game Parlay for a better price than this PR combo, if you like. You can also go a bit higher — +300 for 15 points or +1300 for 20 points. He did that last game, remember. Those are all at FanDuel, but DraftKings is also offering 15 points and eight rebounds for +900.
There’s real upside here with the Bulls so shorthanded. This points + rebounds over is the safest way to play, but you can get more aggressive if you like the angle.
Klay Thompson, Over 3.5 3s (-145)
|Nuggets vs. Warriors||Warriors -9|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | TNT|
The Splash Brothers sure are splashing again, aren’t they?
There are three Splash Brothers now, and they’ve been absolutely unstoppable. Poor Denver just doesn’t have the perimeter defenders to stop all three of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Jordan Poole.
That trio is averaging over 76 points per game this series, each one of them at 24 or better. Together, the three are making 12.3 treys per game, two of them at 50% or better, and they’re somehow over 70% True Shooting as a trio.
It’s not fair, really, but this is what the Nuggets are dealing with. And to their credit, they did do a little better in a Game 4 win, particularly with young Jordan Poole. Aaron Gordon was Poole’s primary defender for much of the game, and Poole had by far his worst game of the series with poor shooting and a heap of turnovers.
Naturally, Curry is getting plenty of attention still too. And somehow that leaves one of the world’s greatest shooters, Klay Thompson, mostly unaccounted for.
Thompson is shooting as well as ever. He’s made five, three, six, and seven 3-pointers this series, going over 3.5 makes in three of the four. He was over that line in five of his final six regular season games too, which means he’s now gone over this number in 80% of his last 10 games. He’s averaging 5.7 makes per game over that stretch.
As always, you can be more aggressive if you like. You can play five makes at +158 or go for six-plus at DraftKings for+350. When Klay gets hot, he can get scorching hot in a hurry. Then again, if the Splash Brothers play like they have been, Thompson may not get extended minutes in a game that could get away from Denver. Perhaps we should just get our four makes and call it a day.
Bonus NBA Prop Angles
Grayson Allen Points and 3-pointer Overs: Have you spent your free Grayson Allen money yet? If you’ve been following along on the Action Network app, we’ve smashed a few Allen overs. With Khris Middleton in the lineup this year, Allen averaged 9.6 PPG with 2.0 3s, but with Middleton out, those numbers leapt to 17.2 PPG and 4.0 3s per game.
These last two playoff games with Middleton sidelined, Allen’s averaged 24.5 PPG, leading the Bucks in scoring both games, with 5.5 3s per game. He can’t stay this hot forever, but his props have been in the single digits on points and 1.5 for 3s. His lines haven’t been posting until an hour before tip, but check in late and keep playing the overs.
Ayo Dosunmu Points Over: Like Allen, there are no lines yet for Ayo Dosunmu and probably won’t be til near tip, but he’s a good bet for a bigger role with Zach LaVine, Lonzo Ball, and maybe Alex Caruso out, especially with Coby White struggling.
Dosunmu barely played the first two games of the series but had eight points in Game 4 as a real spark off the bench. He played 29 minutes in that one, and he’s averaging 10.0 PPG this year when he plays at least 20 minutes. If you can find a line, I think Ayo is a good bet for double-digit points.