Wednesday features a massive 13-game slate with a smorgasbord of NBA player props available to bet. We will narrow down the best three using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks.
On nights like this, there are always so many studs to choose from, but don’t forget the role players. Here are the three player prop bets I’m making on Wednesday.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Jevon Carter, Over 2.5 Assists (-130)
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | NBA TV|
With the second-best record in the league, the Milwaukee Bucks will finally get away from playing at home tonight as they travel to New York to take on the Knicks. This will be their seventh road game as they have a pedestrian 3-3 road record. However, they are six-point favorites and implied for 117 points.
In his second season with the Bucks, point guard Jevon Carter has started all 19 games while averaging career-high’s across the board and playing 27.7 minutes per game. We will target Carter’s assists tonight as he is averaging 3.5 per game and has gone over this assists prop line in eight of his last 10 games.
The Knicks are playing on a back-to-back after winning last night 140-110 over the Pistons. Despite holding the Pistons to 110 points, the Knicks rank 24th in Defensive Rating (114.1), entering Wednesday’s games. They are allowing their opponents to get up 91.3 field goal attempts per game, tied for second-most in the league. They also allow 27.3 assists per game, which ranks third.
Our model has Carter projected for exactly four assists in this juicy matchup. FanDuel does have this prop at 3.5 assists with juice on the over, but we’ll stay at DraftKings where they have the best value at over 2.5 assists. Wherever you place this bet, have confidence in Carter getting over both assist lines tonight.
Lauri Markkanen, Under 2.5 Assists (-155)
|Time | TV||9 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Utah’s fairytale start may quickly be going away as they have lost five-straight games and seven of their last 10. However, tonight they find themselves in a favorable position as 7.5-point home favorites against the Clippers who are coming off a back-to-back after winning 118-112 last night.
The Clippers are without their top two wing defenders, Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, but they are still a tough defensive team that ranks second in the league. George and Leonard have missed 23 combined games and the Clippers are still allowing just 107 points per game, which ranks second in the NBA.
In a tough matchup, it is difficult to see Jazz forward Lauri Markkanen getting over his assist prop. He leads the team in both points and rebounding, but capturing assists is not his forte. Markkanen has failed to reach three or more assists in four-straight games and in 14 of his 23 games so far this season.
BetMGM had this line at 3.5 earlier, but this line fell to 2.5 assists across the board. Still, our model has him projected for just 2.1 assists tonight.
Myles Turner, Over 1.5 3-Pointers (+135)
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Our last prop of the night features a Myles Turner 3-point prop, which has a good amount of juice at +135 on DraftKings sportsbook. This game between the Pacers and Kings has the highest total on the slate at 242.5 points. Even though the Pacers are 4.5-point underdogs, they are implied for 119 points.
With so many possessions in this game, Turner is going to get plenty of opportunities to go over 1.5 3s. Through 15 games this season, Turner is averaging exactly 1.5 made 3s per game on 3.9 attempts. However, in his last four games Turner is attempting 6.3 3-pointers per game.
The Kings have the fifth-worst Defensive Rating (114.4), entering tonight’s games. They have allowed 117.4 points per game while they also rank sixth in Pace. Lastly, the Kings are allowing opponents to shoot 38.2% from beyond the arc. The Pacers also rank fifth in Pace this season, so expect a flurry of points to be put on the board tonight. This is a great matchup for Turner to just let it fly from the perimeter.
Our model has Turner projected to make exactly two 3-pointers tonight, which would get him over this prop line. If Turner is going to attempt over six 3-pointers again, he should get over this prop line.