After only two NBA games last night, it’s a fully loaded slate tonight with 13 games on tap. That means a very juice props slate with a ton of options.
Tonight’s three players all have something in common. D’Angelo Russell, OG Anunoby, and De’Aaron Fox are young stars in this league, but they’re stars who have been up and down, both this season and in their careers. Tonight we’ll zoom in on a recent stretch that has each of them heading in a new trajectory and look at how to play that in our favor.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
D’Angelo Russell Over 9.5 Assists (+600)
|Timberwolves vs. Hawks||Hawks -1.5|
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Let’s get aggressive right out of the gates, shall we?
D’Angelo Russell has quietly had a very nice season for the Timberwolves. Karl-Anthony Towns is this team’s superstar and likely All-Star, and Anthony Edwards got next as the new face of the franchise. But Russell’s resurgence has played a big part in this team’s winning ways. He leads the team in On/Off Rating at +7.6 points per 100 possessions, and he’s at 18.6 points and 7.0 assists per game.
The scoring remains inconsistent and inefficient at times, but Russell’s passing genes have always been clear, and he’s starting to put up some big time assist numbers lately. Just check out his last nine games on the court: 9.2 assists per game, including six of those nine games with double-digit dimes.
That number can crater at times — Russell had only four dimes last game and had a three-assist game in this stretch too. But we don’t really care how low the number is, since a miss is a miss. We’re looking for ceiling outcomes, and Russell has hit this over in 67% of his last nine games versus an implied 14% at this number.
Per NBA Advanced Stats, Russell is averaging an outstanding 15.4 potential assists per game during this stretch. That’s way up from his season average and ranks top 10 in the entire NBA during that stretch, and it shows that this production is no fluke. The way Russell is playing right now, he’s a nightly threat for double digit assists.
And don’t forget, DLo is facing Trae Young and the Hawks tonight. They rank second to last in Defensive Rating and allow the second-most assists in the league.
You can play the more traditional assist line if you want — that’s over 6.5 at plus juice — but I’d rather be more aggressive since his numbers are high variance. Heck, I might even nibble on Russell to have 12 assists on FanDuel at +1400. He’s done that in four of these nine games. It’s an outlier result but one totally in his range.
These numbers are badly mispriced. We’re still more likely to lose than win, but the upside here is too hard to pass on. Let’s take a swing.
OG Anunoby Over 16.5 Points (-115)
|Raptors vs. Mavericks||Mavericks -3.5|
|Time | TV||8:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
OG Anunoby was one of my favorite breakout candidates coming into this season and an early favorite for Most Improved Player. This season feels a bit disappointing in that light, but that’s mostly because Anunoby has been overshadowed by rookie Scottie Barnes and Fred “Freddy All-Star” VanVleet.
That doesn’t mean Anunoby hasn’t been good, though. It’s more that he hasn’t needed to take on a huge usage and star load for Toronto because the team around him has been a bit better than expected. He’s still having a very nice season.
And it looks like he’s starting to settle in. In 10 games back after returning from a long absence, Anunoby is averaging 18.9 points per game, and he’s not even shooting that well yet, but the scoring has come. OG has scored at least 14 points in all but one of those games, giving us a very comfortable, high floor to rely on each night.
Anunoby has only gone over this line in five of the 10 games, a 50% hit rate, but he’s been within one bucket of hitting in 90% of them. With the volume he’s getting these days, this line should probably be closer to 19 or 20. The poor shooting is actually buying us some value before the line adjusts. You can play him to score at least 20 at FanDuel at +164, but I’ll stick with the traditional line tonight.
I like the over, and I’ll play to -130. We’re projecting OG at 20.3 points tonight.
De’Aaron Fox Under 6.5 Assists (+115)
|Pistons vs. Kings||Kings -7|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
De’Aaron Fox is supposed to be the franchise player for the Sacramento Kings, and he certainly has the max contract to prove it. But this season has not gone according to plan, and the whispers have gotten loud as the Kings shop Fox around and look to take the franchise in another direction.
Part of the reason for that is the emergence of sophomore Tyrese Haliburton. He’s been terrific, and the Kings are running their offense through Haliburton now. He’s the point guard, and he’s been great at diming up his teammates while also limiting turnovers, always a Haliburton specialty.
All of that has meant a downturn in De’Aaron Fox’s numbers this season. He’s dropped from 25.2 points and 7.2 assists per game last season to just 20.9 and 5.1 this year. It’s a stark drop off, and the numbers have dipped even lower lately.
Over the last nine games, Fox has gone under 6.5 assists eight times, hitting this under 89% of the time. He’s averaging just 5.0 APG during this stretch, and the Potential Assists numbers bear it out. At NBA Advanced Stats, he’s at just 10.0 Potential Assists per game over this stretch. Players typically convert about half of their Potential Assists, so that’s right where the 5.0 sits.
If you want a more certain win, you can play Fox to go under 7.5 dimes at books like DraftKings, but you’ll have to drink a lot of juice. I’d rather get this under 6.5 at any plus number, so that’s our third play tonight.
Bonus Prop Bets
- Russell Westbrook Over 7.5 Rebounds (-120 PointsBet): Westbrook’s assist numbers and usage continue to take a tumble, but he’s averaging 9.1 rebounds per game over the last 14 without Anthony Davis. He’s over 7.5 boards in nine of those 14 (64%) and one rebound away in three more.
- Mason Plumlee Over 6.5 Rebounds (-105 DraftKings): We’ve played Plumlee’s rebounding a few times lately, and it’s still hitting. Last 13 games, he’s averaging 6.9 RPG and over this line in nine of 13, a very nice 69% hit rate.
- Hamidou Diallo Over 5.5 Rebounds (-110 DraftKings): This is another one worth coming back to. Diallo has over 5.5 boards in six of his last seven games (86%) with 7.1 RPG during that stretch, but the number hasn’t adjusted up yet. He had 13 boards last night against the Warriors. He’s getting minutes, and his energy and athleticism do the rest.