Will Luka Doncic make this first game, and series, competitive? The lines are pretty close even in Game 1, but there are two props I love tonight. Using the Action Labs Player Prop tool I’ll lay out the case for those two prop bets that I’m playing and the best books to find odds on those props.
Let’s dig into our top plays for Game 1 of the Western Conference finals.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Luka Doncic, Over 9.5 Rebounds (-118)
|Warriors vs. Mavericks||Warriors -5|
|Time | TV||9 p.m. ET | TNT|
The Cinderella Dallas Mavericks find themselves in the Western Conference finals after knocking off the best team in the NBA the Phoenix Suns. The Mavericks won both of their series on the road as they beat the Suns in four of their last five games. They beat the Warriors in three of four during the season.
The one player I trust fully on the Mavericks is, without a doubt, Luka Doncic. He led the league in Usage Rate during the regular season and leads all players in the playoffs in Usage Rate as well at over 40%. That will help him quite a bit on the offensive end, but I also love his total rebounds prop at the 9.5 line.
Doncic has gotten the over in three-straight games and in seven of his 10 playoff games. If the Mavericks want any chance not only in this game, but in this series, Doncic will need to do it on both ends of the floor. They rank last in rebounding percentage in the playoffs, so Doncic needs to hit the glass hard.
Our model has Doncic projected for 10.6 rebounds, which is comfortably over this prop line. The Warriors are a solid rebounding team, but Doncic has averaged 15 rebounding chances per game during the playoffs. A solid increase from his 14.1 rebound per game chances during the season. Lock in this rebound prop.
Draymond Green, Over 6.5 Assists (-135)
After going most of the year without one of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green, the Golden State Warriors find themselves back in a familiar place in the Western Conference Finals. They are now fully healthy with home court advantage and are a -225 favorite to make the NBA Finals.
The Warriors are -5 favorites at home and implied to score 109.75 points. This Green over 6.5 assists prop feels very promising even though the value isn’t all that great at -135.
Green averaged 7.4 assists per game during the Nuggets series and six per game during the Grizzlies series. The Mavericks played at the slowest pace in the league during the regular season, and aren’t too much faster during the playoffs. An interesting test for the Warriors who lead the playoffs in points.
Green is also averaging 13.9 potential assists per game, which ranks fourth in the entire league during the playoffs. There will be so many chances for Green to reach this over, especially when the Warriors are healthy with so many perimeter shooters. (Add Jordan Poole to the list of options at Green’s disposal.)
Our model has Green projected for 8.2 assists, which is well over the line and I would bet this prop up to 7.5.