Wednesday features a 10-game NBA slate with some very high totals to target in the prop markets. Every prop listed below has a game total of over 225 points. There will be a lot of scoring, so let’s find an edge in these player props.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Mason Plumlee, Over 3.5 Assists (-105)
|Pacers vs. Hornets||Hornets -2.5|
|Time | TV||7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Getting point guard LaMelo Ball back in the lineup has helped this Hornets offense immensely. They actually won their last game against the Magic after losing eight straight. The Hornets are 2.5-point favorites tonight in a matchup that features the second-highest total on this 10-game slate at 233 points.
There are two 3-pointers made props that are standing out in our model from the Hornets tonight. P.J. Washington and Kelly Oubre Jr. are projected for well over their 3-point props as the Pacers are allowing opponents to shoot 39.3% from behind the arc. Both of their props are coming in with a lot of juice.
Instead of taking either of those two props, we will take Mason Plumlee’s over 3.5 assists. If Washington and Oubre Jr. are draining shots from the perimeter, Plumlee will benefit as he has four or more assists in four of his last five games and in 10 of his last 15 games. Our model has him projected for 4.9 assists tonight.
Having Ball back in the lineup may take away assists from Plumlee, but Gordon Hayward, who averages 4.1 per game, is out tonight. The Pacers rank 25th in Defensive Rating and third in Pace this season, so Plumlee will have plenty of opportunities to get over this prop as the Hornets light up the scoreboard.
Zach LaVine, Under 4.5 Assists (-150)
|Bulls vs. Pelicans||Pelicans -3|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Chicago Bulls have lost four of their last five games as they play an island road game against the New Orleans Pelicans tonight. They are three-point underdogs implied for only 111 points. With a 2-4 road record, they are in a tough spot against the Pelicans, who rank eighth in Defensive Rating this year.
Zach LaVine is the player we are targeting tonight with his under 4.5 assists prop. Through his 10 games played this season, LaVine is averaging only 4.1 assists per game, which is the lowest he has averaged since playing a full season with the Bulls. He has gone under this prop line in six of his 10 games (60%).
As a team, the Bulls rank 18th in total assists, averaging only 24.2 per game. They have six players on their team averaging between 2.9 and 4.2 assists a night. LaVine and DeMar DeRozan have the ball all the time, but both are also shooting a ton. LaVine leads the team with 17.1 field goal attempts per game.
Our model has LaVine projected for only 2.9 assists tonight, which is well below this prop line. With only 111 implied points, there won’t be a lot of opportunities for LaVine to rack up assists. He is averaging 7.6 potential assists per game this season, which is fewer than DeRozan and not high at all.
Deandre Ayton, Over 15.5 Points (-122)
|Suns vs. Warriors||Even|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | ESPN|
It was a disappointing road trip for the Phoenix Suns, who lost three of their four games. They return home for one game before going back on the road. The Suns are 6-1 at home this season as they are hosting the Golden State Warriors on ESPN with an even spread despite the Warriors’ 0-7 road record.
Chris Paul continues to be questionable for the Suns as he has missed three straight games with an injury. Not only is he questionable, but Cameron Johnson and Jae Crowder remain out. If Paul sits, that will open up more usage for the rest of the Suns players, specifically center Deandre Ayton.
The Warriors defense is not what it used to be, and this season is a great example of that. They rank 25th in Defensive Rating and lead the league in Pace. The Warriors also have allowed 117.5 points per game and have the third-worst Rebounding Percentage. Ayton will dominate the paint tonight.
Our model has Ayton projected for 20.4 points. With this game being projected to be competitive, Ayton will see 30+ minutes and a ton of opportunities to get over this prop line as the Warriors are allowing 22.5 points per game on put-backs alone. I love this spot for Ayton to get 16 or more points.