Warriors vs. Spurs Odds
|Time||8:30 p.m. ET|
|Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.|
After falling short in the play-in tournament last season, the Golden State Warriors are back in the playoffs. Klay Thompson rejoins Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and the rest of the gang as they try to rekindle some of that championship magic from a few years ago.
Meanwhile, Gregg Popovich has led these young, run-and-gun San Antonio Spurs to the Play-In Tournament for the second consecutive season. They’ve clinched a play-in berth and will be facing the New Orleans Pelicans.
The Warriors control their own destiny for the third seed if they can win out these last two games against the Spurs and the Pelicans.
Keldon Johnson, Dejounte Murray, Jakob Poeltl and Devin Vassell will all be resting tomorrow for the Spurs. This will give the Warriors a nice opportunity to get the win and move one step closer to securing the third seed. Can they get the job done?
Let’s take a look at how to bet this matchup.
Key Warriors Resting Ahead of Postseason
Klay Thompson has been declared out for Saturday’s game. With Thompson and Curry out, Jordan Poole, Jonathan Kuminga, Gary Payton II and Damion Lee will get some extra run.
If you follow along with my weekly totals column, you’ll know that the Warriors are one of the best teams to the under all season. They are 45-33-2 (57.7%) to the under and they are ranked second in Defensive Rating for the season. You can attribute much of their success to their versatile big man, Green.
For now, I am assuming Green plays. The On/Off numbers show that the Warriors’ Defensive Efficiency increases by 3.6 points per 100 possessions and the Offensive Efficiency decreases by 2.6 with Green on the floor, per Basketball Reference.
The Warriors are 28-13-1 to the under with Green in the lineup, per the Sports Data Query Language at Gimme The Dog.
With Green in and Thompson and Curry out, I expect the Warriors to struggle on offense. Poole has had an awesome year and should fill in well in their absence. I would target the overs on his player props. However, he will not provide enough to fill the void of both Klay and Steph.
Spurs Will Rely on Bench Production
Even though they are still mathematically able to overtake the Pelicans to get homecourt advantage for the play-in game, their massive injury report indicates they are content with the 10th seed and would rather prioritize getting their main guys some rest.
The Spurs have been a high-scoring team, but mainly due to their fourth-fastest pace in the league and their below-average defense. The market sets expectations on their totals rather high, but they have really struggled against the best teams in the NBA.
The Spurs are 19-7-1 to the under against teams with a win percentage of 60% of greater, per the SDQL. They are 25-11-2 to the under against teams with a Defensive Efficiency greater than the season average. The Warriors fit both of these criteria.
As mentioned, Murray, Johnson, Poeltl and Vassell are out for the Spurs. Those four players are the four leading scorers for the Spurs. I struggle to see how the Spurs’ backups will score much against one of the stingiest defenses in the league.
Lonnie Walker should be back in the lineup. Other potential starters could be Tre Jones, Joshua Primo, Josh Richardson, Keita Bates-Diop or Zach Collins.
With injuries to the best scorers on both teams, I really favor the under here. Books have opened up this total at 221.5, which they are shading way too high because of the Spurs’ season averages and tempo of play.
The statistics and trends show that the Spurs really struggle against the top defenses of the league. The Warriors strong defense should really help control the tempo and shut down the Spurs’ backups.
I’m taking the under, and I would play it down to 216.
Pick: Under 221.5 (down to 216)