Warriors vs. Nets Odds
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
|Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.|
The Golden State Warriors will stay in New York for another night to take on the Brooklyn Nets in Wednesday night NBA action.
Golden State is coming off a rough 38-point pounding at the hands of the Knicks last night, while Brooklyn is riding high after winning six games in a row.
Can the Warriors rebound after their big loss to loss to the Knicks? Or will the Nets extend their win streak to seven games against this banged-up Warriors team? Let’s see where the value lies in this matchup.
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors are coming off an embarrassing 38-point defeat to the Knicks last night. They’ve now lost two of their three games since losing Stephen Curry to injury.
It would be easy to make excuses for a team missing its best player, but the Warriors are going to have to find a way to compete and win games without Curry, who’s expected to be sidelined for the next month.
At 15-16, this team doesn’t have much breathing room to start dropping a bunch of games over this next month, and it won’t be getting any break here against a scorching hot Nets squad.
This isn’t a particularly great matchup for the Warriors offense, as their strengths don’t really match up with the Nets’ defensive weaknesses.
The Nets struggle to defend the rim, as they rank 24th in rim rate allowed to opponents. They also struggle to defensive rebound, ranking dead last in defensive rebound rate in the NBA. The Warriors don’t really excel in either of these areas, as they rank last in offensive rim rate and 21st in offensive rebound rate.
The Nets have also done a better job of defending the 3-point line, ranking 10th in the NBA in 3-point rate allowed. That will be crucial against this Warriors offense that ranks second in 3-point rate.
One area where I expect the Warriors to have some success is in transition. The Nets’ transition defense has been poor, as they rank 25th in transition points allowed per 100 possessions. This may become an issue against a Warriors offense that leads the NBA in pace and sits seventh in transition rate.
I expect the Warriors to look to push the pace in an effort to avoid Brooklyn’s half-court defense that ranks seventh in defensive rating. Expect the Warriors to play uptempo tonight.
After starting the year slow, the Nets have won 10 of their last 11 and climbed to fourth place in the Eastern Conference. They should have a great chance to keep their six-game win streak going, as they enter this one with a number of edges.
The most obvious advantage is their health. The Nets are finally fully healthy, while the Warriors just lost their most valuable player in Curry. The injury to Curry leaves Golden State without its two most important players, as Andrew Wiggins was already out for the past few weeks with a groin injury. Klay Thompson has also been ruled out, so the Warriors will be extremely thin at the wing position.
With no Wiggins, the Warriors will have difficulty matching up with Kevin Durant. Draymond Green will likely draw the assignment initially, but behind him, they lack wing defenders who are capable of guarding Durant.
We also should expect Durant to have a little extra motivation going up against his former team. A motivated Durant is a scary sight for opposing defenses, and I expect KD to score at will against this banged-up Warriors team.
This Golden State defense specializes in taking away the rim, leading the league in rim rate allowed. This may not benefit it against a Brooklyn offense that doesn’t really attack the rim and ranks 27th in rim rate.
The Brooklyn offense is built around KD and Kyrie Irving getting to their midrange spots with floor-spacing shooters surrounding them. This is represented in the team’s shot profile, as it ranks fourth in midrange rate and 14th in 3-point rate.
The Nets should continue to get to these spots against a Warriors defense that allows/forces the second-most midrange shots.
Factor that in with key injuries to Thompson and Wiggins, and I expect the Nets to have no issues scoring against this Warriors defense.
The Nets, who haven’t played since Sunday, also have a two-day rest advantage over the Warriors. Golden State traditionally likes to rest some of its starters in these spots, but it could roll those key players out after none of them exceeded over 30 minutes against the Knicks due to the nature of the game.
Regardless, keep an eye on the injury report before placing any bets.
At -12.5, I think this game is lined about right. But I think there may be some value on the over at 224.5.
The Warriors should find some success in transition, and I think this Nets defense is extremely overrated right now.
On the flip side, there’s no reason to expect Jordan Poole, Draymond Green and a bunch of rookies to stop this loaded Nets offense from getting whatever it wants. Take the over in Brooklyn and play it up to 225.5.