Warriors vs. Mavericks Preview: Are Mavs Overvalued?

Action Network NBA contributor Joe Dellera breaks down the Warriors vs. Mavericks game on Wednesday and explains why he likes Golden State to cover.

Warriors vs. Mavericks Odds

Warriors Odds -5.5
Mavericks Odds +5.5
Over/Under 209.5
Time 7:30 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The Golden State Warriors are anxiously awaiting the return on Klay Thompson, but they’ll have to make do against Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday night.

Can the Warriors retain their spot at the top of the West, or will the Mavericks defend home court?

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Everything Going Right in Golden State

Thompson is expected to return Sunday against the Cavaliers and play in his first NBA game since 2019. This is very exciting news for not only the Warriors, but the NBA as a whole.

But for tonight’s contest, the Warriors have listed Andre Iguodala as questionable with knee soreness.

The Warriors are on a rampage through the NBA. They have the league’s best Adjusted Net Rating (+9.7), the best Adjusted Defensive Rating (102.8) and the league’s fourth-best Adjusted Offensive Rating (112.4).

They’re led by Stephen Curry — who is an MVP frontrunner this season — but this Warriors team is deep and that is their true strength.

The Warriors have an array of players that move well without the ball and have great court vision. This has enabled the Warriors to take and make good shots.

The Warriors have the second-best eFG% in the league, and it is in large part due to their team-wide 37.3% shooting percentage from 3-point range. Between the 3-point shooting and their 71% shooting percentage at the rim, the Warriors are tough to stop.

Mavericks Scoring Has Fallen Sharply

The Mavericks will be without Willie Cauley-Stein (personal) and Trey Burke (conditioning) is also listed as questionable. Additionally, Kristaps Porzingis was placed into the league’s health and safety protocols on Monday and is expected to be out for tonight’s contest.

The Mavericks’ offense has stalled with Jason Kidd at the helm, and they have the 19th ranked Adjusted Offensive Rating (109.5). They struggle to attack the rim, and although they take 3s pretty frequently, it’s for naught, considering they shoot an abysmal 33.3% from 3-point range as a team, per Cleaning the Glass.


It’s tough to tell if this is an issue with Doncic or if it’s schematic, but Luka’s scoring is down nearly three points from last season. This offense just is not the same as prior years, where the Mavs were a force to be reckoned with.

Porzingis’ absence should be felt in this matchup. He helps them stretch the floor on offense, and the Mavericks score 107.6 points per game with him in the lineup compared to just 99.2 when he is unable to play.

This is a massive swing, especially against the Warriors, who have the best defense in the league. Expect to see Maxi Kleber and Dwight Powell play more minutes, but both of them could be handled by Kevon Looney or Draymond Green.

Warriors-Mavericks Pick

This game pits the fairly healthy Warriors against the Mavericks, who are without two of their starting big men. The Warriors are not the type to bring in bruisers to attack the Mavericks down low, but they still can secure good looks at the rim with their ball movement and elite offense.

The Warriors are simply the better team, and I was a bit surprised to see this line open at -4. The sharps agreed, and it’s since been bet from -4 to a consensus -5, with some -5.5’s on the board.

I think the Mavericks are overvalued in this spot, and I don’t expect their anemic offense to be able to keep them in the game against the Warriors.

Pick: Warriors -5