Warriors vs. Mavericks: How to Bet the Total in Pivotal West Matchup

Action Network contributor Chris Baker previews how to bet Warriors vs. Mavericks, including updated odds, picks & predictions for Wednesday's game.

Warriors vs. Mavericks Odds

Warriors Odds -2
Mavericks Odds +2
Over/Under 234.5
Time 7:30 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

We’re getting a Western Conference finals rematch tonight and the playoff implications are massive. The Golden State Warriors hit the road to face the Dallas Mavericks in their final matchup off the regular season. The winner will own the head-to-head tiebreaker in the clustered West standings with roughly 10 games left in the season.

Can the Mavericks overcome their injuries and defend their home court? Or will the Warriors finally get a marquee road win? Let’s break down the Warriors vs Mavericks odds, including a pick and prediction.

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Golden State Warriors

This is the fifth game of a five-game road trip for the Warriors and it certainly has massive playoff implications. A loss here would drop them down to eighth in West and give the Mavericks the edge if both teams finish with the same record.

The Warriors have continued their road struggles over these past four games, going just 1-3 and failing to cover in all but their most recent game against the lowly Houston Rockets. This is an interesting matchup for the Warriors as the Mavericks have been playing very small since trading for Kyrie Irving.

In the first matchup between these two in November, the Mavericks escaped with a win due in part to the Warriors shooting just 24% from beyond the arc. That was an outlier shooting performance for the Warriors who are shooting 38.3% from deep this season. In the second matchup, the Mavericks were missing Luka Doncic and Stephen Curry injured his leg in the middle of the game. It was also the last game the Mavericks played before the Irving trade.

The Mavericks have gotten significantly worse on the defensive end since. Dallas ranks 25th in Defensive Rating and 26th in Turnover Rate since trading for Kyrie Irving, an area in which Golden State has struggled offensively all season long.

With their inability to get stops or create turnovers, I expect the Warriors to have no issues getting to their spots against the Mavericks defense. Dallas has begun to allocate significant minutes to Jaden Hardy, Christian Wood, and Davis Bertans over these past few games, so expect their defense to be susceptible tonight.

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks will hope to get Doncic and Irving (both questionable) back for this one, but this current line as home underdogs indicates to me that Doncic is probably not ready yet.

If he sits, Irving will have to shoulder another massive workload as he had a 36.6% Usage Rate against the Grizzlies on Monday. Irving played well the first three quarters, but fell apart late, going 0-of-8 from the field in the fourth quarter. Irving will have to put together a complete game if the Mavericks want to upset the Warriors without Doncic.

In their first matchup, the Mavericks allowed the Dubs to shoot 47% of their shots from beyond the arc, but were fortunate that they shot just 24% on those looks. With a significantly worse defensive unit entering tonight’s game, it is unlikely that the Mavs can replicate that performance.

Dallas also allowed the Dubs to shoot 40% of their attempts at the rim. Allowing an opponent to attempt 87% of their shots at the rim or the 3-point line is a recipe for disaster and it is highly likely that the Warriors capitalize tonight if given those same looks.

Offensively, I expect the Mavericks to have some success if one of Irving or Doncic is able to go. The Warriors defense has failed to travel on the road for the entire season so I expect the Mavericks to remain efficient on offense as long as they have one of their stars.

Warriors-Mavericks Pick

I lean towards the over here if either Irving or Doncic plays. These are two top-10 half-court offenses going against two bottom-10 half-court defenses. The Warriors defense has been abysmal on the road and I expect the Mavericks to expose that tonight.

On the flip side of the ball, the Mavericks haven’t been able to get stops since trading away Dorian Finney-Smith. Their 87% rim and 3-point rate allowed to the Warriors in the November matchup is a disaster that they only managed to escape with a win from due to the Warriors outlier poor shooting from three.

The Warriors should exhibit positive 3-point regression tonight, especially considering they’ve had three straight sub-par shooting nights. If both Irving and Doncic sit I would pivot to the Warriors at any number less than -4.

Pick: Over 234.5 or Better (If Doncic or Irving play)