NBA First Basket will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day here, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.
Doncic | Bullock | Brunson | Wiggins
|Prop||Doncic +1100, +1600, +2600 | Brunson +1300 | Bullock +2400 | Wiggins +2900|
|Matchup||Warriors vs. Mavericks|
|Time||9 p.m. ET|
The Warriors will try to close out the Mavericks on Tuesday night. Kevon Looney (33% opening-tip win rate) will be taking on Dwight Powell (28% win rate) in the opening tip-off. Powell is 5-2 versus Looney the past two seasons on opening tip-offs, so I think there is a good chance Dallas wins the tip.
Dallas scores first 54% of the time on the season. That number is a bit misleading as the Mavericks did really well when Kristaps Porzingis played center. Since the Porzingis trade, Dallas has scored first 42% of the time. Golden State scores first just 38% of the time. In the seven games between these two teams this season, Dallas scored first in four games.
We track early possession usage looking at first three shots a team takes. Luka Doncic and Jalen Brunson are combined taking 2.4 of the first three shots over the past 20 games. For that reason, taking Doncic and Jalen Brunson exact methods tonight and sprinkling a bit on Reggie Bullock and Andrew Wiggins.
Picks: Doncic Exact Method – Other +1100 (0.45u) | Doncic Exact Method – Layup +1600 (0.3u) | Doncic Exact Method – Free Throw +2600 (0.1u) | Brunson Exact Method – Other +1300 (0.3u) | Bullock Exact Method – 3-Pointer +2400 (0.15u) | Wiggins Exact Method – 3-Pointer +2900 (0.2u)
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