Warriors vs. Mavericks Bets: Closing Time for Golden State

Can Dallas possibly force a return trip to Dallas for Game 6, or will the Warriors lock up their fifth trip to the NBA Finals in eight seasons?

The Mavericks staved off elimination with an impressive 119-109 home win in Game 4. Dallas finally enjoyed positive shooting regression, making 20 three-pointers while shooting 46.5 percent overall from beyond the arc. The Mavericks grabbed a 99-70 lead entering the fourth quarter, surviving a late comeback from Golden State to force a Game 5.

The series shifts back to Golden State, where the Warriors have all the motivation to end this series tonight. No team in NBA history has come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a seven-game series, but three teams have rallied to force a Game 7. This includes the 2003 Mavericks, who lost a Game 7 at home to Portland.

Luka Doncic barely missed a triple-double in Game 4 with 30 points, 14 rebounds, and nine assists. He will need an equal, if not better, performane tonight to send this series back to Dallas.

Will the Golden State championship pedigree send the Warriors back to their fifth NBA finals in eight years? Or will the Mavericks hot shooting force an improbable road playoff win?

Here are my picks for tonight’s matchup.

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Mavericks vs. Warriors Betting Odds

Mavericks  Warriors
Spread +7 -7
Moneyline +240 -300
Over/Under 215.5

*Lines accurate at the time of publication.

Mavericks vs. Warriors Thursday Night Picks

Jalen Brunson Under 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-125, DraftKings)

Jalen Brunson’s big games in this series have been tied to strong 3P production, which should not happen in a closeout road matchup. Brunson has shot 8 of 13 from deep in the two games he beat this number, and 1 of 7 in the two games he fell short. His points prop is juiced to the under at 19.5, which projects at least eight rebounds + assists to even approach this over.

Brunson has failed to tally more than eight rebounds + assists in 10 of the last 15 playoff games. He averaged only 7.3 RA in four regular season games agains the Warriors this season.

I’m betting on a tight, low-scoring Game 5, especially for a Mavericks team that ranks as the slowest paced team in the NBA this season. That translates to lower overall production for Brunson.

Risk: 1.25 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit. (Bet up to -130)

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Mavericks vs. Warriors Under 215.5 Points (-110, DraftKings)

The bigger the game, the slower the pace.

Tonight’s game is likely to end in one of two ways:  a low-scoring Mavericks win or a Warriors blowout. In either situation, I project the under as the more profitable wager.

Dallas is still the slowest team in the NBA this season per John Hollinger’s Pace metric for ESPN. They also have struggled to match Golden State on the boards, often dropping all five players back on defense and giving up offensive rebounding opportunities.

The Warriors bench became even thinner with the loss of Otto Porter Jr. to a Game 3 foot injury. He is still ruled out for tonight, limiting the Warriors’ scoring ability off the bnech.

The Mavericks and Warriors have played under this number in two of the first four games, and only a late-game rally from Golden State put the Game 4 total over. Going back to the Phoenix series, the Mavericks have played seven of their last nine games under this number.

Regardless of the outcome, I’m backing a low-scoring game tonight at the Chase Center.

Risk: 1.10 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit. (Bet up to -120)

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