Warriors vs. Lakers Odds & Picks: Can We Trust The Road Warriors?

The season-long trend we saw with the Warriors on the road this year reared it’s ugly head in Game 3, as the Lakers absolutely obliterated the defending champions at home with a 127-97 win.

Down 2-1, the Warriors seemingly have their backs against the wall as they look to avoid a 3-1 hole heading back to the Bay, especially before yet another road game in a potential Game 6 that would be played in Los Angeles.

While the season-long trend has screamed “fade the Warriors” on the road, I’m leaning against the grain and backing the defending champions on Monday.


Warriors Lakers
Spread +3 (-114) -3 (-106)
Moneyline +122 -144
Total 227.5

Odds and lines are accurate at the time of publication.


Warriors ML (+122, FanDuel)

As alluded to above, the Warriors have been abysmal on the road this season, sporting a 12-33 record including their postseason games, winning only 26.7% of their road games. After their last dismantling at the hands of the Lakers, I wouldn’t blame backers for jumping ship. That being said, the vast majority of the Lakers’ performance feels unsustainable.

The Lakers, who despite attempting to surround LeBron James with shooting this season, limped through the season making 10.8 threes per game (26th in the NBA) on 31.4 attempts per game (25th). That 34.3% mark from deep was the fourth-lowest of all 30 NBA teams this season. In Game 3, the Lakers shot an absurd 51.7% from deep on 29 attempts. If that doesn’t scream regression, I don’t know what does.

On top of this, they also attempted 37 free throws as a team. While they had one of the higher free throw discrepancies in the league this year, 37 is an other-worldly number that, again, screams regression.

On the Warriors’ side, they shot only 29.5% from three in Game 3 (44 attempts) and shot 20 fewer free throws than the Lakers, all while shooting only 39.6% from the field. These are all far-cries from their season averages and, like the Lakers’ numbers, I expect regression to the mean. 

Despite being away from home, I trust the talent up and down the Warriors’ roster to fix the flaws from last game and bomb away from deep in Game 4 while clamping down on the defensive end, ultimately evening the series. With both teams staring at looming regression in opposite directions, I’ll take the value on the Warriors’ moneyline all day.

Risk: 1 unit on FanDuel to win 1.22 units.

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