Warriors vs. Knicks Odds
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
|Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.|
Stephen Curry is on the precipice of history, and he can further cement his legacy as the greatest shooter of all time on a Tuesday night at the Mecca of Basketball, Madison Square Garden.
Curry needs just one more 3-pointer to tie Ray Allen for the all-time mark and two to break the record. This season we’ve waited without an ounce of doubt that Curry would transcend this all-time mark, but the magnitude of him draining 2,974 3s during his career at just 33 years old is truly remarkable.
He’s done this while missing nearly an entire season directly in his prime at the age of 31 and has made 3.8 3s per game for his entire career. There was a turning point when he truly broke through in 2012-2013, and he has buried 4.3 3s per game since then on an incredible 43% from downtown.
He has captured the hearts and minds of a generation while inspiring millions of players to value and admire the 3-point shot. There’s something magical about a Curry 3. The snappy release, the arc, and the seeming inevitability of the ball reaching the bottom of the net.
But for tonight, while we appreciate the greatness that is Stephen Curry, is there any other angle we can take on this game to turn a profit? Let’s break it down.
Golden State Warriors
Ordinarily, this is a game the Warriors might have rested a few players, but with Curry trying to set this record I think we should see their full complement of players. Keep an eye on Draymond Green, but I’d be stunned if he did not play in this contest given the historical context. There’s always Friday (Celtics) or Saturday (Raptors) to slip in an extra day of rest.
The Warriors have been an absolute wrecking ball this season. They sit atop the Western Conference with the Suns, they have the best Net Rating (11.7), Defensive Rating (100.0), and the fourth-best Offensive Rating (111.7), per NBA Advanced Stats. They are more than just Curry, but they certainly have controlled the 3-point line on both ends of the court.
The Warriors take 3s at the second-highest frequency in the league (43.8%), and they shoot 36.8% from 3, eighth-best in the league, per Cleaning the Glass. On defense, although they allow a relatively high frequency (38.0%), opponents shoot just 33.0% on those attempts (third-lowest). This coupled with their 52.4% Rebound% has kept opponents’ offenses in check.
New York Knicks
The Knicks made some rotation decisions in their loss to Milwaukee, namely, Mitchell Robinson was moved to the bench unit in favor of Nerlens Noel. Robinson responded well with 9 points and 8 boards in 18 minutes, but it’s evident that he needs to focus on his conditioning.
Moreover, the Knicks will continue to be without both RJ Barrett and Obi Toppin as they remain in the league’s Health and Safety protocols. Alec Burks should return for this game and reenter the starting lineup.
The Knicks have struggled defensively this year. Although the problems were blamed a bit on Kemba Walker, their defensive issues extend far beyond just him. The Knicks have 24th ranked Defensive Rating (110.5), and they allow opponents to shoot 3s on 39.2% of their possessions.
This is particularly problematic because their opponents make 35.7% of their shots from 3-point range. While they’ve been able to defend the rim well, they are allowing too many good looks on the perimeter for a team with about a league-average offense on the other end.
The Knicks will try to secure the perimeter, but against this Warriors team, it may be difficult. Thibs will get his team to show up, but once the record is held by Curry, I think their entire offense should open up and run freely against a Knicks team that has allowed opponents to score 119.2 points per 100 possessions over the last two weeks. The Knicks have fallen off a bit from their hot start, and it is evident that they are suffering from some regression.
While all eyes will be on Curry tonight, the sharp money has come in initially on the Knicks for the full game spread and pushed it from Knicks +5 to Knicks +3.5 on Monday night.
I understand the line movement given the back to back, but I’m fading it. The Knicks have struggled immensely over the last two weeks and are just 1-6 straight up. Moreover, they have actually been the worst team at home against the first half spread – 2-12 ATS with a -72.51% ROI. They seem to get into trouble and then rely on herculean efforts by the bench to come back and secure wins.
I expect the Warriors to come out firing and take advantage of this Knicks team that allows 3-point shots at an alarming rate. I’ll stick to the first half spread just in case Curry breaks the record early, and then Coach Kerr decides to rest him to finish the game.
Pick: Warriors 1H -2 or better.