Warriors vs. Kings Game 2: Back Curry and the Dubs

Action Network contributor Tyler Schmidt of Action Network previews Game 2 between the Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings on Monday, April 17.

Warriors vs. Kings Game 2 Odds

Warriors Odds -1
Kings Odds +1
Over/Under 240 (-110 / -110)
Time 10 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The electricity in Golden 1 Center for Game 1 between the Sacramento Kings and Golden State Warriors is likely a sign of things to come for these two amazing fanbases.

It helped that the Kings won their first playoff game since 2006! De’Aaron Fox exploded for 38 points, shooting 13-for-27 from the field and making clutch shot after clutch shot down the stretch. Get your popcorn ready, the shotmaking in this series will be eye candy for all basketball fans.

The defeat on Saturday night was the first time in the Steve Kerr era that Golden State lost a Game 1 in the first two rounds of the playoffs. Their woes away from home continue as the Warriors are now a disastrous 11-31 on the road this season. A bounce back is inevitable as the Warriors under Kerr have won a road game in all 24 playoff series. They are one-point favorites looking to knot this series at one game apiece.

There were 249 points scored in Game 1, so it should not be surprising Game 2 has a total of 240 points. Expect another barnburner as these teams were first and second in points per game.

Let’s find the betting edge for Warriors vs. Kings Game 2.

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Golden State Warriors

The Warriors were able to build a double-digit lead in the third quarter of Game 1, but could not hold off the flurry from the Kings, who ended up taking the lead at the end of the quarter. Despite the loss, the Warriors played extremely well. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson combined to score 51 points, while making 11 3-pointers and 19 field goals.

There are so many trends that are working in their favor in this game. Here are a couple:

  • The Warriors have won each of their last nine Western Conference first-round games following a loss.
  • The Kings have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 11 home games following a win.

Despite the loss, the Warriors are still favored to win the series. A win on Monday would flip the home-court advantage in their favor, which would be key as they were 33-8 at home this season. The Warriors also won three of their four meetings against the Kings during the regular season. They averaged 120 points per game against the Kings, who rank 24th in Defensive Rating, while allowing 118.1 points per game.

Curry and Thompson are the top two options, but getting Andrew Wiggins back after a two-month hiatus gives the Warriors another weapon offensively. Wiggins looked like he didn’t miss a beat, as he poured in 17 points on 7-of-16 shooting. He missed seven of his eight 3-point attempts, but leading the Warriors in minutes off the bench is a good sign for him and the team moving forward.

The Warriors finished the season first in Pace and 10th in Offensive Rating. Adding Wiggins will likely boost their offense even more, but Jordan Poole is questionable with an ankle injury.

Regardless of Poole’s status, this is a fantastic matchup for the Warriors. The Kings are allowing opponents to shoot 37.3% from behind the arc, while the Warriors lead the league in 3-point attempts and 3-pointers made per game.

Given their championship pedigree, expect the Warriors to bounce back with a victory.

Sacramento Kings

The Kings handled business in the first game despite getting a less-than-stellar performance from Domantas Sabonis. He was 5-of-17 from the field and 2-of-4 from the charity stripe. However, Sabonis continues to obliterate the Warriors on the glass.

Through four games against the Warriors frontcourt, Sabonis is averaging 16.5 rebounds per game. As long as Sabonis can clean up the glass, that will allow De’Aaron Fox to get out in transition.

Fox led the league in clutch scoring, was sixth in transition points and ranked just outside the top 10 in drives per game this season. His speed was critical as Fox got into the paint at will in Game 1. In four games in this matchup, Fox is averaging 28.5 points per game while shooting 50.1% from the field.

The Sabonis and Fox duo is great, but Malik Monk also scored 32 points off the bench; he was 8-of-13 from the field and made all 14 of his free-throw attempts. Monk was a team-high +10. Monk, who is in his first year with the Kings, is second on the team in usage rate at 25.3%.

Trey Lyles was also phenomenal off the bench with 16 points and six rebounds in only 18 minutes. It is safe to assume Monk and Lyles won’t be that efficient on Monday.

Overall, the Kings led the league in Offensive Rating (118.6) while averaging 120.7 points per game. They can score against anyone, but their defensive woes are their biggest problem. They simply outscored the Warriors in the opener, but that is a slippery slope against a team with so many weapons.

Warriors-Kings Pick

The total is an intriguing approach given that seven of the last eight Warriors Western Conference first-round games have gone over the total points line. However, 240 points is a ton of points and betting the over still seems a little risky despite how fast both teams want to play.

Instead, I will take the Warriors at -1. Not having Jordan Poole could hurt, but the Warriors have championship experience and should rebound. I’d consider taking the Warriors up to -2.5 points. However, if Poole is ruled out the line may move in favor of the Kings.