Warriors vs. Celtics Odds
|Over/Under||210.5 (-105 / -115)|
|Time||9 p.m. ET|
|Odds via <!–BetMGM–>BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.|
The Golden State Warriors have been the league’s symbol of excellence over the past decade. They’ve dominated the league, earning themselves three NBA championships since the 2014-2015 season.
After losing in the 2019 Finals to the Toronto Raptors, things looked like they were starting to turn for the dynasty. Klay Thompson tore his ACL in Game 6, Kevin Durant left in free agency and Stephen Curry had his 2020 season cut short with a broken hand. All of a sudden, Draymond Green became the number-one option and the ensuing result was an ugly 15-50 record.
However, things have quickly returned to form for the Warriors. The core stars of Curry, Thompson and Green have stayed intact, but they’ve also added some new role players into the mix in Andrew Wiggins, Jordan Poole and Kevon Looney. This mixture of championship veterans and rising talent has the Warriors one win away from adding another championship banner.
On the other hand, the young, hungry, talented Boston Celtics have impressed the NBA world as they have an opportunity add another title to this storied franchise. Their young stars of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have faced a tough path to the NBA Finals that included seven-game series against the Milwaukee Bucks and the Miami Heat.
The Celtics have been resilient all season long, but has fatigue finally caught up to them? Boston suffered back-to-back losses for the first time this postseason in game four and five and completely faltered in the fourth quarter in both of those games. The Celtics are on the brink of elimination and in a must-win game at home. Can they bounce back one more time?
Let’s break down Game 6.
Will the Warriors Remain Efficient in Game 6?
The Warriors won Game 5 despite a bad shooting performance from Curry. He went 7-for-22 from the field and missed all nine of his attempts from behind the arc. The last time Curry failed to hit a 3-pointer in a game was back on Nov. 8, 2018. I expect Curry to bounce back from this rare occurrence with a strong game.
Curry was carrying the Warriors on his shoulders for the first few games of the series, but Wiggins has emerged as a hero in the past two games. He scored a team-high 26 points in Game 5 and has recorded consecutive double-doubles. Wiggins played well on both ends of the floor and had another game-sealing dunk with two minutes left in the game.
Thompson has not been great this series, but his shooting has steadily gotten better. He had 21 points last game while shooting 50% from the field. “Game 6 Klay” is a well-known narrative for his successes and historic performances in Game 6s. Thompson has averaged an insane 49.5% from behind the arc in Game 6s over his career.
In Game 6 against the Grizzlies in Round 2, Thompson scored 30 points and hit eight 3-pointers. This should breed plenty of confidence for the sharpshooter.
The Warriors offense was efficient in Game 5, notching 25 assists and only committing six turnovers. I like the excellent ball movement to continue into Game 6.
The Warriors are 12-3 to the over in road elimination games dating back to the 2014-15 season, per the SDQL at Gimme The Dog. They are 10-5 to the over in games off a win in this postseason.
Will Carless Play Doom the Celtics?
Once again, the Celtics have their backs against the wall and will look to extend the series to a Game 7. They’ve been resilient and are now 7-1 straight up and ATS after a loss in this postseason.
The Celtics were gassed in Game 5. They were able to get to the line 31 times, but missed 10 free throws, which ended up being the losing margin. Boston won the rebounding battle with its size, but the offense continues to disappear in the clutch.
Brown had an awful shooting night, going 5-for-18. He has tended to respond well to poor shooting performances, following up with big performances.
The Celtics haven’t hit 100 points in two consecutive games. Expect a better effort as they try to match the scoring output of the Warriors in an elimination game.
Contrary to the Warriors, the Celtics committed 18 turnovers in Game 5, which the Warriors converted into 22 points. This is uncharacteristic for the Celtics for this season as a whole, but carelessness with the basketball has been a real issue in this series and has given the Warriors some easy baskets.
Boston’s bench was a non-factor and only scored 10 points while the Golden State bench scored 31. Derrick White put up a complete dud in Game 5 and hasn’t made much of an impact this series. Al Horford and Robert Williams were relatively quiet on the offensive end, too. They will need to produce more if the Celtics hope to extend the series.
Game 6s have been known to be strong to the under. However, if you take a look at the NBA Finals, those games have gone 7-3 to the over dating back to the 2004-05 season, per the SDQL.
I have confidence in the Warriors offense. Their role players are heating up and I expect Curry to have a bounce-back game. Add in the “Game 6 Klay” and I see the potential for a lot of points.
The closing total in Game 3 was 214, but after two low-scoring games, it has lowered to 210. It may be uncomfortable to bet the over on an elimination game, but I think this is an over-adjustment and that gives us some value on the over.
Pick: Over 210