Last week was up and down, as I imagine betting this season has been for many on WNBA props.
Thursday? Perfect. Saturday? Not so much. It is what it is.
Today’s slate is loaded, as 10 of the league’s 12 teams have games on Tuesday.
Here are three WNBA player props I’m eyeing for the slate, and hopefully we end the day with an accurate field goal percentage.
WNBA Player Props & Picks
Phoenix Mercury vs.
Brittney Griner Under 16.5 Points (+106)
|Time | TV||7 p.m. ET | ESPN3|
Brittney Griner hasn’t hit this over in four straight games, and I’m betting there will be a fifth.
Lately, she’s been stuck around 12 and 13 points, but shortly before that, she enjoyed a run of 20 or more points in four straight contests.
Her shot attempts are way down over the last four. Griner put up 12.9 field goal attempts per contest until July 11, and since then, she’s only shot 34 times in four games.
Her free throws are also down to 3.5 over her last four versus the 5.5 per game she attempted beforehand.
If you’re looking at points, you’re either betting this trend continues or it doesn’t — it’s that simple.
Oddly enough, you may know whether or not this is a winner early. Griner never finished a game between 13-to-18 points this season. She hasn’t scored 14, 15, 16 or 17 points exactly.
Trends haven’t mattered a ton this season in some cases, but Griner just isn’t getting the shots you’d need for the over here, and you’re getting a good number at +106.
It’s a stay away from me if it drops any further, but other books do have her at 17.5 — or even 18.0 — as of this writing — just not at plus odds.
Pick: Brittney Griner Under 16.5 Points (+106)
Las Vegas Aces vs.
Kiah Stokes Over 4.5 Rebounds (-113)
|Time | TV||7 p.m. ET | ESPN|
I admittedly went back and forth on this one a tad, but I’m leaning over right now.
Kiah Stokes has started five straight games with Candace Parker out. She isn’t playing huge minutes, but she has the avenues to be effective — particularly on the glass — from a betting standpoint.
As a starter, Stokes has gotten five or more rebounds twice. However, she’s also achieved this in 14 of her 23 games this season, including in five straight from June 29 through July 9.
Even in a potential blowout — the Aces have won five straight by 16 or more — expect Stokes to hover around 20 minutes if she’s at least having a decent game.
Against the Sky on June 11, Stokes pulled down five boards in over 21 minutes in a 13-point victory.
Pick: Kiah Stokes Over 4.5 Rebounds -113
Seattle Storm vs.
New York Liberty
Sabrina Ionescu Over 5.5 Assists (-128)
|Time | TV||7 p.m. ET | ESPN3|
This might not stay at 5.5, and I’m not in on this over 6.5, but we’re here.
Ionescu has gone over 5.5 in each of her last three games, as well as in five of her last six. The Liberty are sizable favorites over the Storm tonight — by 15.5 points — so Ionescu may see an early exit.
In games the team has won by blowout — six wins of 15 or more points — she’s only gone over this number twice, which caused some pause for me.
But Ionescu has been moving the ball very well over her last six, as she’s at 7.2 assists and 2.2 turnovers per game, a better than 3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio.
If it stays at 5.5, I’m going over, but I’m staying away if this goes up by tip-off.