Tuesday's NBA Prop: Julius Randle Will Struggle With Cleveland

PropBetGuy explains why he's betting against Knicks star forward, Julius Randle, in Tuesday's matchup against the Cavaliers.

PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.

NBA Player Prop & Pick

Julius Randle, 24.5 Points 

Odds Under 24.5 Points (-102)
Time 7:30 p.m. ET
Books Available FanDuel

The Cleveland Cavaliers are an excellent defensive team, with the second best defensive rating in the NBA. They’ve also allowed the fewest points per game overall and the second-fewest points in the paint, mainly thanks to their frontcourt, big men Evan Mobley and Jarret Allen.

Why am I leading with this? Well because it should be very hard for Julius Randle to score points tonight.

After a blistering stretch, Randle has cooled down of late on the scoring front. He’s failed to clear this line in five of his seven games this season.

The former All Star is at his best when he’s scoring in the paint, with more than half of his made buckets coming within 10 feet of the rim. He’s significantly less efficient further out from the basket, only converting 38% of his jump shots this season.

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In fact, when he’s playing at Madison Square Garden, his jump shot percentage drops to 36%, which includes a brutal 27% from behind the arc.

The proof is in the numbers: when Randle faced off against teams ranking in the top-eight of opponents’ points in the paint, he failed to clear this line in 8 of 13 games. This includes 18 and 15 point outputs against the Cavs this season, shooting a combined 12 of 32 (38%) in those contests.

It should be another slog for Randle, with both Jalen Brunson and RJ Barrett in better position to score tonight. I have the Kentucky product projected at 21 points, and would play this line down to under 23.5.

Pick: Randle Under 24.5 Points (-102) — Down to 23.5.

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