PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.
NBA Player Props & Pick
Trae Young, Under 37.5 PRA
|Odds||Under 37.5 PRA (-119)|
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
|Books Available||Caesars Sportsbook|
The NBA play-in tournament tips off on Tuesday with the Atlanta Hawks visiting the Miami Heat. As with most postseason games, there are several layers of complexity, but ultimately, I think this game will come down to how the Heat handles the Hawks’ pick-and-roll offense.
The Hawks run the pick and roll at a top-three frequency, but the Heat allow the fewest combined points per game to pick-and-roll ball handlers and roll men. For this reason, I’m loving the under on Trae Young’s PRA line.
It’s an uneasy feeling fading a star player in a must-win game, but Young has struggled against the Heat this season, staying under this line in three of four games, while shooting 36% from the field and 21% from behind the arc.
By virtue of their pick-and-roll defense, the Heat have allowed the fourth fewest PRA to opposing point guards this season. In fact, against the nine teams allowing the fewest point guard PRA, Young failed to clear this line in 8-of-11 away games, averaging only 34.7 PRA per 38 minutes.
As with most Heat playoff games, I expect Jimmy Butler and company to slow the pace and make the Hawks beat them in the half-court. With their defense already tailor-made to stop Young’s offensive game, I expect muted production from the Hawks point guard.
I have Young projected at 33 PRA, and I would play this line down to under 36 PRA.
Pick: Trae Young Under 37.5 PRA (-119) | Playable to Under 36 PRA.
NBA Player Prop & Pick
Taurean Prince, Over 1.5 3-Pointers Made
|Odds||Over 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-120)|
|Time||10 p.m. ET|
With Jaden McDaniels and Rudy Gobert unavailable against the Lakers, Taurean Prince should slot into a significant role. The seven-year veteran played 35 minutes against the Pelicans, and he is a candidate to start on Tuesday.
Whether he starts or not, Prince should see significant minutes — and when he’s played at least 26 minutes this season, he’s nailed at least two threes in 11-of-16 games.
The sharpshooter gets a quality matchup as the Lakers have allowed the 11th-most threes per game and the third-most wide-open 3-point attempts per game.
I have the Baylor product projected at 30 minutes, which should yield six attempts from long range. I’m comfortable playing this line for the 38% 3-point shooter up to -145.
Pick:Taurean Prince Over 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-120 | Play to -145).
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