There are eight games on the schedule tonight in the NBA and plenty of opportunities take advantage of player props. As has been the case for the past few weeks, there is value out there on certain players who will have to step up in the absence of team depth due to so many guys in health and safety protocols.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out three prop-bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Jimmy Butler, Over 21.5 Points (-104)
|Wizards vs. Heat||Heat -6.5|
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | NBA TV|
Jimmy Butler returned to the lineup last week for the Miami Heat after dealing with a tailbone injury. They welcome the Washington Wizards tonight in Miami. The Heat are dealing with many key players being out with injury or in the league’s health and safety protocols.
Butler will have to lead the way for the Heat tonight until they get more of their players back in the lineup. The Heat have played the Wizards twice earlier this season in a back-to-back home and home situation. In both of those games Butler scored 32 and 29 points respectively.
The Washington Wizards are struggling on the defensive end over the last five games. The Wizards rank 25th in Defensive Rating and I expect Jimmy Butler to take on the scoring role tonight and continue his success against the Wizards this season.
LeBron James, 37.5 PTS+ REB (-112)
|Lakers vs. Rockets||Lakers -5|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Los Angeles Lakers are in a slump to say the least. The Lakers are amid a five-game losing streak. Tonight, the Lakers head to Houston to take on the Rockets who are one of the worst teams in the Western Conference.
The Lakers are without Anthony Davis for several weeks who is dealing with MCL Sprain. LeBron James has stepped up in a big way in the absence of Davis. In fact, in seven games without Davis this season, James is averaging 34.6 points and 8.6 rebounds per game. Furthermore, James has scored 30 or more points in all seven games without Anthony Davis in the lineup this season.
The Houston Rockets defense is one of the worst over the last five games of the season. The Rockets rank 30th in Defensive Rating allowing 122.6 points per 100 possessions — 4.4 more than the next closest team over that span. Additionally, the Rockets have allowed opposing teams to score 115 or more points in eight of their past 10 games. Over the past five games, the Rockets have allowed the third-most points in the paint (53.6) while the James ranks tied for third in the NBA for points in the paint per game (16) over that same stretch.
I expect James to have another big night for the Lakers and look to snap the losing streak against the Houston Rockets tonight who are playing in back to back games.
Stephen Curry, Over 29.5 Points (-115)
|Nuggets vs. Warriors||Warriors -7|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | NBA TV|
The Golden State Warriors will host the reigning MVP, Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets tonight. Steph Curry is the betting favorite to win the MVP this season and rightfully so. Curry has been on an absolute tear this season. He ranks second in the league in scoring averaging 27.9 points per game.
However, Curry in the last four games has scored 30 or more points in every game. In this short span Curry is averaging close to 35 points per game including a 46-point game against the Memphis Grizzlies last week. Furthermore, over the last six games, Curry has knocked down at least five three-point shots.
I am not sure there is anyone on this Denver Nuggets team who can contain Curry, especially their guards. In their two April matchups last season (one on the 12th and on the 23rd), Curry obliterated Facundo Campazzo, who was his primary defender for 57 possessions combined per NBA Advanced Stats. Curry scored 24 points with Campazzo guarding him and got to the line 11 times.
The rest of the Nuggets team wasn’t much better. In his past three games against the Nuggets, Curry is averaging 40 points per game, which includes a 53 point explosion. I think we’ll get the best version of Curry tonight.