The NBA schedule features two games tonight on NBATV. Despite only two games there is plenty of value on the betting market to find a few profitable player prop bets!
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
D’Angelo Russell, Points + Assists Over 24.5 (-115)
|Minnesota Timberwolves vs. New York Knicks||Wolves -3|
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | NBA TV|
D’Angelo Russell returned to the Minnesota Timberwolves lineup on January 5th against the Thunder and since then has been playing brilliant basketball. So far in the month of January, Russell is averaging 18.2 points and 8.8 assists per game. Additionally, Russell has recorded a double-double in three of six games in January. Furthermore, Russell has dished out 10 or more assists in four out of the last five games.
According to Hashtag Basketball, the Knicks defense is allowing opposing point guards to average 27.6 points and 7.1 assists this season. It seems the defensive intensity the Knicks possessed last season has not translated over to this year. Based on NBA Advanced Stats, last season the Knicks finished as a top five defensive rated team per 100 possessions. This season, the same Knicks team has regressed to 16th.
Russell is also playing much better on the road this season than at home. In fact, Russell is averaging 20.7 points on the road, which is 4.6 points more compared to home games. Also, Russell is averaging 8.4 assists on the road, which is nearly three more assists on average than in home games.
Corey Joseph, Over 3.5 Assists (-105)
|Detroit Pistons vs. Golden State Warriors||Warriors -15.5|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | NBA TV|
Corey Joseph has been pivotal for the Pistons over the course of the season. He has averaged 24 minutes per game for the Pistons and provided some excellent guard play. In fact, Joseph has dished out four or more assists in five straight games for the Pistons. He is splitting time with Cade Cunningham at the point guard position which is giving Joseph the opportunity to play significant minutes.
Additionally, the Pistons hosted the Warriors on November 19th, and in 30 minutes of play, Joseph dished out five assists in that game as well. According to Hashtag Basketball, the Warriors defense is allowing opposing point guards to average 8.2 assists per contest this season.
According to NBA Advanced Stats, the Warriors rank #19 in the entire league in allowing three-point shots made. In fact, the Warriors are tied at #21 in points in the paint allowed over the last five games.
Over the last 10 games of the season, Joseph is averaging right at five assists per game for the Pistons. I expect Joseph to be able to driving and kicking to find 3-point shooters against the Warriors tonight.