Trail Blazers vs. Warriors Odds
|Trail Blazers Odds||+14|
|Time||10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.|
This primetime ESPN matchup features the best home team and one of the worst road teams in the league. The Golden State Warriors are 13-2 at home this season, while the Portland Trail Blazers are just 1-10 on the road.
The spread may seem high even with the crazy home and road records, but it makes sense the more we really dive into this game. The Trail Blazers have many injuries that will impact the outlook of this game. The Warriors still aren’t at full strength yet, but they are one of the deepest teams in the league.
Blazers Beat Up And Bad On The Road
The Trail Blazers have hit a bit of a rough patch, losing six of their last seven games. After a four-game home stand, Wednesday’s game represents a short trip away before yet another four-game home stand.
The road has not been kind to this Trail Blazers bunch this season, with their lone win coming against the Houston Rockets. That was also the only game in which the Trail Blazers have covered the spread on the road. Their 10 road losses have come by an average of 14.3 points per game, and in three of those games they were favorites coming in.
The Blazers are dealing with a ton of injuries, and Damian Lillar and CJ McCollum are both unlikely to play in Golden State. They also have several players listed as questionable, including Anfernee Simons, Cody Zeller, Nassir Little and Ben McLemore. Since this is a one-game road trip, I could see the Trail Blazers being very short-handed. Make sure to keep an eye on who plays tonight.
The Trail Blazers are a complete different team on the road. They have an Offensive Rating of 108.6 on the road and average 104.9 points per game, compared to a 114 rating at home while averaging 111.7 points per game. Their Defensive Rating is even worse on the road at 121, compared to 109.1 at home.
The Trail Blazers traveled to Golden State on November 26th and lost, 118-103. The Warriors covered and the total went under the projected 225 points. Lillard and McCollum both played in that game, so it’s safe to say the Blazers are going to have a tough time keeping up tonight against one of the league’s best teams.
Warriors Among The League’s Elite
It is weird saying the Golden State Warriors have been mediocre lately, but they have only won two of their last four games. They even lost their last home game. However, their record is still tied for the best in the league at 20-4. This is the last game of their current home stand before embarking on a five-game trip out east.
The Warriors are a league-best 13-2 at home this season. They have covered the spread in 11 of those 15 games, while the under has hit in 10 games. The Warriors have been favored in every home game and in their 13 wins, they have averaged a winning margin of 17 points per game. They have been favored by double-digits twice this season and they have covered in both of those games.
Stephen Curry leads the team in scoring at 27.7 per game, which is the second-highest mark in the league. He has been especially dialed in from distance this season, making a career-high 5.5 3-pointers made per game. His defense usually goes overlooked with how phenomenal he is on offense, but among players averaging more than 25 minutes per game this season, Curry leads them all in Defensive Rating with 97.5.
Defense has been the Warriors’ calling card this season. They lead the league in Defensive Rating as the only team with has a rating below 100. The Warriors also lead the league allowing only 100.6 points per game. That defense is rare to find when you realize they also have a Pace that ranks sixth in the league.
Their defense been incredible, but their offense has been nearly as good. They rank third in Offensive Rating and third in points scoring 113.6 per game. And that’s all coming despite not getting a single minute from Klay Thompson or James Wiseman yet this season.
Trail Blazers-Warriors Pick
This is a nightmare matchup for the Trail Blazers. They are already playing tonight’s game short-handed without their two best players and could be without even more players. They’re likely going to have a very difficult time scoring the basketball tonight.
The Warriors’ defense combined with the Trail Blazers inefficient scoring is why I am taking the under on Portland’s team total. The line is set at 102.5 points right now, but make sure to shop around for the best value.
There are three factors which are leading me to this bet.
- The Warriors have covered 73% of their home games.
- The under has hit in 67% of the Warriors home games.
- The Trail Blazers have not covered the spread in 91% of their road games.
I would take this bet down to 100.5 points. The Warriors defense is that good.
Pick: Trail Blazers Under 102.5 Team Total