Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies Odds
|Trail Blazers Odds||+5|
|Time||7 p.m. ET|
|TV||NBA League Pass|
|Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.|
The Blazers travel down to Memphis on Wednesday to take on Ja Morant and a struggling Grizzlies squad.
Can the Blazers build on their recent success? Or will the Grizzlies build off their recent win over Indiana? Let’s dive into how these teams match up.
Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers are looking to continue to build some momentum after winning three of their last four games. They’ve certainly benefitted from an easier schedule of late, as they haven’t played a top-10 team in net rating since Jan. 19.
For the season, the Blazers have played the fifth-easiest schedule in the NBA. This will be a step up in competition for Portland with Grizzlies ranking third in adjusted net rating, according to DunksAndThrees.
The Trail Blazers come into this one scorching hot. Of their top-five offensive rating marks of the season, their offense has three in this last week slone. They posted offensive ratings of 139.1, 134.0 and 152.0 in three of their last four games. They shot greater than 50% from 3 in each of those games.
However, it’s important to note that all three of those games came against teams that rank in the bottom 10 of defensive rating for the season. This Grizzlies matchup means the Blazers will now play the team that leads the league in defensive rating team on the year.
The Grizzlies defense has been elite all year, but they haven’t been particularly effective at limiting 3-pointers. This is an advantage for a Portland team that ranks ninth in 3-point attempt rate.
Memphis allows the seventh-highest opponent 3-point attempt rate, so I expect Portland to continue to generate good looks here.
The Trail Blazers won’t match their elite offensive output from the past few games, but they should continue to be efficient against a Grizzlies defense that does a poor job of limiting 3s.
The Grizzlies have lost five of their last six games but got right on Sunday against the Pacers. Still, I expect them to come out with tons of intensity and energy as they look to make a statement against this Portland team.
This is a terrific spot for them. They’ll take on a horrible Blazers defense with an extra day of rest as an advantage. The Blazers also had to travel yesterday to get to Memphis, so there could be some fatigue there as well.
Ignoring all of the situational factors, this matchup is as good as it gets for this Grizzlies offense. The Blazers do not defend the paint, ranking dead last in opponent rim rate allowed on the year.
This is a huge problem when facing this Morant-led Grizzlies attack. The Memphis offense ranks 10th in rim rate and first in short midrange rate on the year. This team lives in the paint, and it should have no issue getting there at will tonight.
Another edge comes on the glass, where the Grizzlies rank second in offensive rebound rate. Portland has struggled to finish defensive possessions, ranking 20th in defensive rebound rate, according to Cleaning the Glass.
Expect Steven Adams, Jaren Jackson Jr and Brandon Clarke to have great nights on the offensive glass. The Grizzlies should dominate on the boards and inside the paint, and I expect them to hang a big number on Portland’s defense.
Trail Blazers-Grizzlies Pick
I expect a lot of points in this one. I view this Grizzlies defense as slightly overrated and this Blazers defense as genuinely awful.
The over has been bet up from its open so much that the value is gone. However, I would look to play the Grizzlies team total over or the Grizzlies -5, as I think they hold the bigger edge on the offensive end.
The Blazers have no true rim protectors and just don’t have the athleticism to keep Morant and this athletic Grizzlies squad in front of them.
Take the Grizzlies at -5 and their team total over 122.5 and trust them to capitalize on their rest advantage.
Pick: Grizzlies -5 · Team Total Over 122.5