Khris Middleton OVER 26.5 points
This points prop rides heavily on Giannis Antetokounmpo’s availability tonight, but as of now, Giannis is listed as doubtful. If he sits, I’ll take the over and never look back. Over the last two games (both without Giannis), Middleton has averaged 29.0 points and scored at least 26 in both instances. He’ll be leaned on to lead the offensive charge against a solid Suns defense, and volume alone should push him past his prop.
Devin Booker OVER 28.5 points
Booker has averaged 27.0 points in the playoffs, but in series openers, that number jumps to 31.7. One of those openers came without Chris Paul (40 points), but Booker’s performances in those games cannot be overlooked.
Chris Paul OVER 20.5 points
Across his last eight games, CP3 has averaged a robust 24.8 points and scored at least 21 five times. Playing in his first Finals, Paul should be highly motivated, especially as the Suns look to take advantage of a depleted Bucks team.
Deandre Ayton OVER 16.5 points
This prop is right on the mark, as Ayton has averaged 16.2 points through 16 playoff games and totaled at least 17 points in eight of them. He’ll be in for tough competition in the form of Brook Lopez, but without former DPOY Giannis in the lineup, Ayton’s chances to hit the over increase significantly.
Mikal Bridges UNDER 11.5 points
Bridges has failed to eclipse this point total (or even score in double digits) in four of his last five games. He’s averaged just 10.8 points per game this postseason, and while the minutes have been there (32.2), the offense hasn’t. With Cam Johnson back in action and Torrey Craig still around to absorb minutes and opportunities off the bench, I won’t count on Bridges in this one.
Jae Crowder OVER 10.5 points
Crowder snapped out of his shooting slump in Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals with 19 points on 6-of-11 shooting. This performance came after a four-game stretch in which the forward averaged 4.5 points on just 25% shooting. Prior to that cold spell, he went for at least 11 points in five of six games. I like him to carry that Game 6 momentum into the Finals and eclipse this points prop.
Jrue Holiday OVER 23.5 points
Holiday has averaged 23.3 points in series openers this postseason, but there’s good reason to believe he can best that average tonight. Holiday averaged 26 points over the final two games of the Eastern Conference Finals without Giannis, and with Giannis doubtful, Holiday should be able to sneak past this point total.
Brook Lopez UNDER 14.5 points
I won’t let recency bias cloud my judgement here. It’s hard to forget Lopez’s massive Game 5 effort against the Hawks where he poured in 33 points, but I’m going to look at his postseason as a whole. Through 17 games, Lopez has averaged just 13.5 points, doing his damage as a blocker and floor-stretcher. I’ll take the under.
Pat Connaughton OVER 6.5 points
Connaughton has eclipsed this point total in three of his last five, including the last two without Giannis. The Notre Dame product should be in for extended run tonight with the Greek Freak still sidelined.
P.J. Tucker OVER 5.5 rebounds
Just like Connaughton, Tucker is a role player who should see continue to see increased production if Giannis sits. In five of his last six games, Tucker has grabbed at least six boards, and he’s averaged 9.5 over his last two without Giannis.