Top NBA Playoffs Odds & Picks: Wednesday (5/8)

We swept yesterday’s board, going 2-0 between the Celtics’ spread and Under in the Thunder-Mavericks game.

Tonight’s slate only features one game – Game 2 between the Pacers and Knicks! I’ve added a spread and total bet for this standalone NBA Playoffs game below.

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Indiana Pacers @ New York Knicks (Spread)

Despite losing by four points, the Pacers covered a six-point spread in Game 1. However, in Game 2, the Pacers are just 4.5-point underdogs. Ultimately, the Pacers could get whatever they wanted on the offensive end. Indiana shot a 58% effective field goal percentage and only turned the ball over 8.4% of the time in that game. While the Pacers didn’t get to the foul line much or earn a high rate of offensive rebounds, the Pacers still scored 123.2 points per 100 possessions.

This is no fluke. The Pacers are currently second in the NBA in points per 100 possessions and lead the league in limiting offensive turnovers. So, while they’ll give the Knicks more chances on the offensive glass, the Pacers limit turnovers to get their “extra” opportunities.

On the other hand, the Knicks scored 124.2 points per 100 possessions in Game 1. The offense shot a 59.3% effective field goal percentage but turned the ball over 15.8% of the time. Without those turnovers, the Knicks would’ve won by way more. But that’s the thing. The Pacers will dominate the turnover battle, and the Knicks haven’t shot better than a 56.1% effective field goal percentage in more than one game in the playoffs.

The Pacers are inconsistent defensively, but the offense should be able to keep pace with the Knicks to at least cover as 4.5-point underdogs.

Bet: Pacers +4.5 (-110)

Indiana Pacers @ New York Knicks (Total)

This series was always going to be high-scoring.

The Pacers have scored 121.9 points per 100 possessions, the second-most in the NBA. Meanwhile, the Knicks have added 119.1 points per 100 possessions, the third-most in the NBA.

While the Pacers’ offense is more often acknowledged, the Knicks were actually much better offensively than defensively throughout the year.

The Knicks have grabbed 35.3% of offensive rebounds and only turn the ball over 12.4% of the time. New York is also in the top 10 in free throw rate and shot a 51.9% effective field goal percentage. The Knicks have been offensively above average in every key stat throughout the season.

Meanwhile, the Pacers have allowed 118 points per 100 possessions this season. They’ve also given up at least 32.5% of offensive rebounds in three consecutive games. The defense typically fouls at a high rate and has allowed a 58.9% effective field goal percentage or better in two of their last three games between the Bucks and Knicks.

On the other hand, the Pacers have shot a 58% (or better) effective field goal percentage in four of seven games. They’ve also limited turnovers to no more than 10.3% in any five of their last six games. Again, the Pacers will typically shoot a high percentage from the field and keep turnovers down. The Knicks will add a bunch of offensive rebounds for extra chances after shooting a worse field goal percentage.

Therefore, we’ll back the Over 221.5 in Game 2.

Bet: Over 221.5 (-112)