We have a condensed four-game NBA slate on tap this evening and no shortage of options to mull over. Without any further preamble, let’s jump right into some of our favorite picks.
Monday’s Best NBA Picks
(NBA odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Jalen Johnson Over 24.5 Points + Assists (-120)
We kick things off in Atlanta, where the Hawks host the Pelicans. Jalen Johnson looks to be in a prime spot to smash tonight against a New Orleans squad that may not possess the interior presence to stop the Atlanta forward.
Johnson has scored more than 20 points in six of his last seven games. He combined for over 24.5 points and assists in eight of his previous nine contests. When the Hawks forward last played against New Orleans on November 3rd, he scored 29 points and added eight assists.
The Pelicans are currently allowing the third-most assists to the opposition at a rate of 28.5 per game and the seventh-most points in each contest (115.7). Johnson is averaging just over the 24.5 points + assists threshold at 25.6 for the season.
Miami Heat +10.5 (-110)
Boston and Miami will be two of the five teams playing on a back-to-back tonight. If we’ve learned anything about Boston in the past two seasons, it’s when playing two games in as many nights, chances are players will be sitting this evening.
Derrick White and Jaylen Brown missed last night’s contest. While Brown has a better chance to play, we still think White could miss his second game in a row due to a foot injury.
Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford each played over 30 minutes last night. With Porzingis returning from injury less than a week ago, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see the Boston center sit tonight. In the case of Horford, the veteran tends to take the second game in as many nights off in the golden years of his career.
The Celtics are 5-1 over their last six meetings against Miami, covering over 10.5 points in four of the contests. However, Boston is 3-6 against the spread (ATS) at home this season. Due to the possibility of Boston starters sitting, we will take Miami with the points for this contest. You will want to get to the window as early as possible on this bet. When confirmation comes down, these odds will be dust in the wind.
Nikola Vucevic to Record a Double-Double (-155)
The Chicago center rolls into this contest accumulating a double-double in five out of his last seven games. Tonight, Nikola Vucevic faces a Brooklyn team that does not pose much of a threat on the boards to opposing big men.
Ben Simmons left the game early yesterday, as did Ziaire Williams. It would appear neither may play this evening. That takes two rebounding options off the board for the Nets. Nic Claxton is a phenomenal rebounder, however, foul trouble has continuously limited playing time for the Brooklyn center.
Vucevic is averaging a double-double on the season with 20.9 points and 10 rebounds. Although the payout is a little juicer than we would prefer, the veteran center could record a double-double by halftime in this contest. Nothing wrong with a smaller payout if the play is devoid of any sweat.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Minnesota Timberwolves Under 221.5 Points (-110)
In a battle between two teams that have begun the 2024-25 campaign underachieving from preseason expectations, the Timberwolves will look to pounce on a Lakers team that will be playing in their second game in as many nights.
Our reluctance with this game stems mostly from a raw points perspective. Neither team has been running up the score as of late and there’s nothing to suggest this contest will be played at a torrid pace.
The Timberwolves have covered a 221.5 combined total points spread in only two of the previous six contests. The Lakers have failed to exceed this total in their last three games.
These teams have combined for 225 points per game on the season. However, we feel that number may be a little too high for two teams struggling with cohesion at the moment.
Los Angeles Lakers Team Total Under 114.5 Points (-115)
It would only make sense to correlate this selection with the previous play considering the Lakers are the side we feel may have the most difficulty scoring this evening. Especially when considering that Los Angeles is on the second leg of a back-to-back, with travel involved.
Los Angeles is averaging 108.3 points per game over their last three contests. They have only cleared 114.5 points one time over the last five games. Currently, the Lakers average 114 points per game on the season. However, when on the road, that number slides to 111 – with statistical decreases in field-goal percentage, three-pointers made and three-point percentage.
Austin Reaves was not available for the contest last night due to a scary fall on Friday. Due to the quick turnaround, his status for today is in question. LeBron James and Anthony Davis are also candidates who could miss this game to preserve health for the season.
It could be a tough scoring night for the Lakers if they are possibly without two or more starters for this contest. Minnesota has not shown the same defensive prowess that fueled the team last season. Yet, we still feel they can hold the Lakers under 114.5 points in this game.
Enjoy the games tonight and best of luck with your picks.
