We’ve got a rock-solid nine-game slate on tap this evening in the NBA. While most eyes will be on Steph Curry to see whether he can break the all-time three-point record, I’ll be watching a pair of players elsewhere because of some solid betting value.
Here are my top NBA betting picks for Monday’s action.
Written Picks YTD: 53-45-0 (+15.24u)
Model Picks YTD: 50-33-1 (+4.9u)*
*Follow me @is_sirois for the model’s picks.
1. Jarrett Allen o16.5 Points | -115 (1u) at DK Sportsbook
2. Jarrett Allen 20+ Points | +168 (.25u) at DK Sportsbook
The Miami Heat are a much worse basketball team without Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler. That should be obvious. So then why have the books given Allen his typical point total for tonight’s matchup? Allen has hit the over against this mark in 15 of his 25 games thus far! Also, Allen has scored at least 17 points in 10 of his last 11 games.
Even though the Heat have allowed the fewest points in the paint per game this season, Adebayo and Butler deserve the credit for that feat. Recently, the Heat haven’t been great in the paint. Through their last seven games, Miami has allowed the sixth-most points per game to opposing centers (26.3). That’s a significant drop from their season-long average (19.3), which ranks eighth-best.
That’s where Allen comes in. The big man should dominate in the paint against Dewayne Dedmon and P.J. Tucker. The books seem to be giving Miami’s frontcourt more credit than it deserves right now. Thats’ especially true because the Cavaliers are five-point favorites! I like Allen so much that I recommend you sprinkle a bit of action on him to go for 20+ tonight, something he has done 10 times this year and in six of his last 11.
3. Dwight Powell o6.5 Points | -112 at FD Sportsbook
We’re doubling down on centers tonight with this play. The Dallas Mavericks won’t have Luka Doncic in their matchup against the fast-paced and depleted Charlotte Hornets, which bodes well for their role players, especially Powell. But that’s not the primary reason to target the big man.
The Hornets permit the second-most points in the paint per game (49.2). They have allowed opposing centers to score an NBA-high 27.4 points per game against them on the year, a number which has swelled to 32.6 over their last seven outings, also an NBA-high. With Powell playing all of his minutes at the five and getting 5.1 paint touches per game, the second-highest rate in Dallas, it’s safe to expect big things out of him tonight.
4. Dwight Powell 6+ Rebounds | +120 (.5u) at FD Sportsbook
The Hornets have also struggled on the glass against opposing big men. They have allowed centers to nab 18.5 rebounds per game against them this year, the second-highest such number in the NBA. That said, they have improved recently, as opposing fives have only gotten 16.5 boards per game through Charlotte’s last seven outings.
We’re targeting Powell despite Charlotte’s improvement because I don’t believe it to be sustainable. The Hornets allow their opponents to get 56.6 rebounds per game, the second-highest such number in the NBA, and it seems like luck may explain why the boards haven’t been going to opposing fives more than any statistical development.
Also, Powell has gone over this total eight times this year. He averages 5.8 rebounds per game without Doncic this season, too.
5. SGP: Powell o6.5 PTS + 6+ RBD | +290 (.25u) at DK Sportsbook
Let’s feature the above two props and roll them into an SGP, shall we? I don’t love Powell’s chances of going for a double-double, which he hasn’t done once this year, but this play gives us some exposure to a combination of stats that Powell should rack up a bunch of tonight — even if he can’t get to double digits
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