We made money last time out with a 2-2 record thanks to a +118 line on our Cade Cunningham prop in my first article, so let’s keep making money! The line is extremely important to consider when placing any bet, especially with prop bets. These lines vary the most across sportsbooks as certain books prioritize some plays over others. We have nine games on the slate today so let’s dive right in and see who has the best matchups today!
Josh Giddey OVER 15.5 Points + Rebounds -111
Giddey became just the second player in NBA History and the first since 1971 to record a double-double without scoring a single point on December 26th. He had ten rebounds and ten assists in a five-point win for the Thunder. In the two games following, he became the youngest player in NBA history to record a triple-double and had a fifteen-rebound performance against this same Minnesota team last time out. Look for Giddey and the Thunder to come out a little stronger at home, where they were down by twenty points after the first quarter and ended down by eight, and this better offensive performance to improve on his six assists from last time out.
Joel Embiid OVER 29.5 Points -116
In Embiid’s last eight games, he has taken his game to another level, averaging 33 Points on 54.9% shooting. He is also shooting 44.4% from three, albeit on just over three attempts a game. This presents a major problem for a San Antonio team that struggles against mid-range shooters. The Sixers star center has been a force from here, shooting 40% while shooting 52% of all shots he takes from here, he is in the 98th percentile in shot attempts from this range, and I think a career night may be in the cards for Embiid!
Malik Monk OVER 2.5 Threes Points +125
How this line has not moved is beyond me, as Monk has been a driving force behind what the Lakers are trying to do. With the driving nature of LeBron James and Russell Westbrook, the formula only works when players like Monk are hitting their shots from deep. In his last six games, he is shooting an amazing 46.5% from three, and 3.3 made threes per game. He hit six on 11 threes last time out and is attempting 7.2 threes per game. There is value in his points as well, but we will happily take plus money value on Monk to do what he is best at doing.
Evan Mobley OVER 15.5 Points -115
Evan Mobley is the leading candidate for Rookie of the Year, for good reason, as he helped carry the Cavs through a time when they lost Colin Sexton and Ricky Rubio for the year and budding guard Darius Garland for a stretch. In his last five games, he is averaging 20 points per game on 61.1% shooting, and I can’t see anyone on this Portland being able to guard him. Evan Mobley is doing most of his damage from short mid-range, and Portland is the second-worst team in the entire league, allowing opponents to shoot 44.8% from this range. Look for Mobley to get his fourth twenty-point game in the last six here again. (20+ points at +205 is worth a sprinkle)
Nikola Vucevic Double-Double/Bulls Win -106
This is a Player Performance Double, which means that the player has to complete his prop and the team listed needs to win. Today we are going with Nikola Vucevic. Just two games ago, he had 22 points, 12 rebounds, and a +13 net rating in 35 minutes, as the Wizards hung around with the Bulls but ultimately couldn’t take down the class of the Eastern Conference. He has double-doubles in the last six games, and the Bulls have won eight games in a row, so it feels like both trends may be related.
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