After a profitable Monday, I’m looking forward to today’s five-game NBA slate. We’ve got a pair of games on TNT tonight, but unfortunately, none of my favorite plays involve players in those matchups. Oh well. Perhaps the lack of national scrutiny explains the below exploitable betting lines.
Here are my top NBA betting picks for Tuesday’s action.
Written Picks YTD: 13-10-0 (+7.23u)
Total Picks YTD: 23-21-0 (+11.56u)*
*Follow me @is_sirois for any other plays.
1. Rudy Gobert o14.5 Rebounds | +104 at FD Sportsbook
Gobert has been an exceptional rebounder this year. He is averaging an NBA-best 17.2 rebounds per game after six starts. Notably, this number isn’t inflated by one huge night on the glass — Gobert has recorded at least 13 rebounds in every game so far. He even totaled 20 against the Kings earlier in the year.
Aside from Gobert’s absurd efficiency on the glass (just look at his 28.1% rebound percentage), I like this prop because the Kings have struggled against opposing bigs. They allow the most rebounds per game to centers by nearly a two-board margin (22.21) and permit the fifth-most total rebounds per game (58). Their three centers, Richaun Holmes, Tristan Thompson, and Alex Len, have rebounding percentages below 20%, 15%, and 10%, respectively. Gobert has at least an inch on all three of them, too, and he has three inches on Holmes, Sacramento’s starter.
Gobert averaged only 13.5 rebounds per game last year, and he averaged that same number the year before. The books expect him to come back down to Earth a bit, but this matchup and the plus-money juice make targeting Gobert’s rebounds prop a smart call tonight.
2. Jerami Grant o1.5 Made Threes | +108 at FD Sportsbook
The books are penalizing Detroit’s players who aren’t Cade Cunningham tonight. That’s fine, we’ll take the value. Jerami Grant nailed at least two three-pointers in all of his games against the Milwaukee Bucks last season, and I’m optimistic that he’ll do so again here.
Grant has gotten off to a bit of a slow start from deep. The career 35% three-point shooter has gone just 25% beyond the arc this year. That said, the attempts are there. With 4.8 attempted threes per game, Grant should be hitting 1.68 per game, not the 1.2 he is currently hitting. Also, the entire NBA is shooting worse from three-point land thus far, which suggests regression looms on the horizon.
Grant should exceed this total against a banged-up Bucks squad that surrenders the 12th-most made threes per game (12.6) — especially if Milwaukee turns their defensive attention toward Cunningham.
3. Kevin Porter Jr. o4.5 Assists | -144 at FD Sportsbook
For better or worse, Houston’s offense runs through KPJ. He averages 5.0 assists per game, a nose above this total, although he has only gone over twice. He even stayed under in his one game against the Lakers. So why are we targeting him here? Well, regression.
KPJ and the Rockets were exceptionally inefficient against the Lakers on Sunday. The team turned the ball over 25 times, and KPJ was responsible for six of those turnovers. But Houston should bounce back a bit here, and he is the best-situated of their players for a good game.
The Lakers have struggled on defense this year, especially against opposing point guards. They have allowed the third-most assists to the position this year, and KPJ spends 99% of his minutes at the one. His assist percentage (27.7%) leads Houston, and no guard comes within 10% of that figure. He’ll also get plenty of chances to dish out assists because these teams are tied for the NBA’s fastest pace. You won’t make a ton of profit at this juice, but I want a slightly safer bet after the above pair of plus-money props.
4. Parlay: Gobert o14.5 RBD + KPJ 6+ AST + Grant o1.5 3PT + PHX ML | +1035 (.1u) at FD Sportsbook
Today’s parlay is fairly simple. I’ve paired two of the above plus-money props with a teased-up total for KPJ. That alone gives us a parlay with +884 odds, so let’s throw in Phoenix to win for a bit of extra value. The Suns have struggled in the early going, but they’re up against a Pelicans team that won’t have Zion Williamson and may not have Brandon Ingram. New Orleans just doesn’t have the depth to contend with the defending Western Conference champions.
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.