We’ve got a small three-game NBA slate on tap for tonight. The lines don’t look great, but you can always find some value if you dig hard enough. I’ve dug up two player props for the evening’s action, and I’ve constructed a same-game parlay to pair with each of them.
Here are my top NBA betting picks for Tuesday’s action.
Written Picks YTD: 30-22-0 (+15.75u)
Total Picks YTD: 46-44-0 (+18.54u)*
*Follow me @is_sirois for any other plays.
1. Eric Bledsoe o4.5 Assists | +114 at FD Sportsbook
There isn’t much value in this game, but this is the line I like the most. It’s somewhat counterintuitive, to be honest. I like Bledsoe’s assists here because the Spurs give up the third-most points in the paint per game (49.5), and Bledsoe isn’t much of a threat near the rim. As a result, look for him to pass to the players who are, like Ivica Zubac.
That’s how other teams have attacked the Spurs in the recent past. San Antonio has surrendered the second-most assists per game to point guards through their last seven. This will probably change once Jakob Poeltl returns (and San Antonio’s paint defense along with him), but we’ll ride the trend until he comes back.
We like Bledsoe specifically because he leads the Clippers in pass percentage over the last seven games (60%) and ranks second in assist rate on the year (22.1%). He also spends his time exclusive at point guard, the position the Spurs have struggled the most against assist-wise. Bledsoe averages 4.4 assists per game, which isn’t great, but it’s enough to play this line in the plus money.
2. SGP: Bledsoe o4.5 AST + Zubac 10+ PTS | +253 (.4u) at FD Sportsbook
If Bledsoe gets five assists, I expect Zubac to be on the receiving end of a few. He leads the Clippers in paint touches per game over their last seven (10.1) and for the full year (9). His unteased total sits at 10.5, but I advise that you get rid of the hook because Zubac averages only 9.8 points per game. He has finished with 10 or more points nine times this season, but he recorded exactly 10 points in three of those games. Let’s lay just enough on this line to profit a full unit should it hit.
3. Tyrese Maxey o16.5 Points | -112 at FD Sportsbook
Maxey is one of the hottest players in basketball. The 20-year-old guard has recorded 24-plus points in his last three outings and has averaged 26 points per game since Philadelphia lost Joel Embiid. With Embiid still out of the lineup (along with Matisse Thybulle and Danny Green), Maxey will remain a high-usage option for the 76ers. As a result, he should probably go over this total.
The key logic here is that the Utah Jazz struggle against opposing backcourts. Perhaps that’s because they limit frontcourts so effectively. Regardless, the Jazz have surrendered ninth-most points per game to point guards (25.9) over their last seven outings and the fourth-most to shooting guards (25.1). To illustrate this, let’s look at how well opposing ones have done against the Jazz lately: Kyle Lowry (21), Tyler Herro (27), Brogdon (30), McConnell (21), Young (27).
The books should probably have jacked up Maxey’s total a bit more before today. Oh well, that’s on them. We’ll take the value and run.
4. SGP: Maxey 20+ PTS + 2+ 3PT + UTA ML | +438 (.25u) at FD Sportsbook
The Jazz have surrendered 20+ points to the five point guards in three games. I don’t see why Maxey will be any exception. We’ll get a bit more value here by taking him to get six of those points off three-pointers (Maxey has sunk at least two triples in three of his last four) and throwing in Utah’s moneyline odds. The 76ers’ backcourt may keep them in this one, but it won’t be enough to best the Jazz tonight. Let’s bet just enough on this one to profit a full unit.
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