Well, late-breaking news about Gary Trent Jr.’s injury took the air out of yesterday’s bets, but we still hit on our Christian Wood play — and by a wide margin. Wood soared over his total of 16.5 with a 39-point performance, and he went 8-for-9 from the perimeter in so doing. Man, I wish I’d teased that total up — or targeted his made threes! Oh well, I’ve found some other player props worth teasing up tonight.
Here are my top NBA betting picks for Tuesday’s action.
1. Mitchell Robinson Over 9.5 Rebounds | +100 (.75u) at FD Sportsbook
2. Mitchell Robinson Double-Double | +250 (.25u) at FD Sportsbook
The New York Knicks will have to play the Atlanta Hawks without Julius Randle tonight. They find themselves in what’s essentially a make-or-break matchup in the Eastern Conference play-in race here, and I expect a few of their players to step up. Robinson is one of them.
The Hawks have struggled on the glass lately. They have allowed opposing centers to nab 19.7 rebounds per game, which ranks second highest in the association. Although Clint Capela remains an elite glass cleaner, losing John Collins has hurt Atlanta’s ability to rebound. These factors create an opening for Mitchell Robinson to get double-digit boards, which we have already seen him do twice against the Hawks.
We’ll also target Robinson’s double-double line because the Hawks have similarly struggled to defend opposing centers. They have permitted 28.8 points per game to the position through their last seven contests, eighth most in the NBA. They have also struggled against other bigs — the Hawks have given up 27.3 points per game to power forwards through that span, an NBA-high. With both Randle and Collins out, look for Robinson to get his 19th double-double of the year.
Let’s split a unit between Robinson’s rebounds and his double-double line. We’ll still make a profit if he only gets double-digit rebounds, but we’re in for a much sweeter payout should he also record double-digit points.
3. Aaron Gordon Over 18.5 Points + Rebounds | -122 (.75u) at FD Sportsbook
4. Aaron Gordon 8+ Rebounds | +285 (.25u) at FD Sportsbook
Aaron Gordon has dominated the Los Angeles Clippers this season. He racked up 30 points and 12 rebounds in their first meeting, and he followed that up with 28 points and four rebounds in their second. While the rebounds weren’t there both times, he beat his number for point and rebounds with points alone both times. As a result, we’ll target that number and a teased-up total for his rebounds tonight.
The Clippers field a relatively undersized roster, so the fact Denver uses Gordon’s bulky 6-foot-8, 235-pound frame at small forward lends them an advantage. Gordon splits his time between small forward, where he starts and spends 52% of his minutes, and power forward, where he spends 45% of his minutes. The balance of Gordon’s usage has come at center.
Los Angeles has struggled against opposing threes and fours, especially on the glass. Over the last seven games, the Clippers have given up the second-fewest points but the most rebounds to small forwards. They have also allowed the sixth-most points and 11th-most rebounds to power forwards in that same stretch.
As with the Robinson bets, I recommend splitting a unit between Gordon’s points and rebounds and his teased-up rebounding number. Gordon’s 12 rebounds against Los Angeles earlier this year marked a season-high, but we’ve seen him nab at least eight boards in 17 games this season.
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