We’ve got a solid slate of games on tap tonight, including a pair of televised matchups: Washington at Miami and Denver at Golden State. I’m targeting a rookie in the former matchup, although you may not have heard of him. I’m pairing that with a prop on another, high-profile rookie as well.
Here are my top NBA betting picks for Tuesday’s action.
Written Picks YTD: 59-63-0 (+8.11u)
Model ATS Picks YTD: 67-53-1 (+7.91u)*
Model ML Picks YTD: 9-14 (+4.0u)*
*Follow me @is_sirois for the model’s picks.
1. Omer Yurtseven o21.5 Points & Rebounds | -115 at DK Sportsbook
2. Omer Yurtseven PPD: DD & MIA Win | +215 (.5u) at FD Sportsbook
The Miami Heat have lost their top two centers in Bam Adebayo and Dewayne Dedmon. Their power forwards have also suffered injuries, as P.J. Tucker is questionable tonight, and Markieff Morris has already been ruled out. That’s left Miami with Yurtseven and the 41-year-old Udonis Haslem at the five.
Fortunately, it’s worked out somewhat well because Yurtseven has stepped up. The rookie big man is averaging 21.4 points and rebounds per game over his last five outings, including a double-double against the Magic. He finished with at least 12 rebounds in each of those games.
While it’s true that he has gone over this total just once, he has also played 25-plus minutes just once, and he posted 31 points in rebounds in that game. With the Heat still riddled with injuries, it’s fair to expect a similar performance from Yurtseven tonight.
But that’s not the only reason to target Yurtseven. In somewhat of a perfect storm, the Heat will face the Washington Wizards tonight, and they have played terribly against opposing fives. They have allowed the seventh-most points (23.5) and rebounds (16.3) to centers on the year. Those numbers have ticked up late, too — through their last seven games, the Wizards have surrendered the most points (29.8) and second-most rebounds (20.3) to the position.
I expect Yurtseven to follow up on his strong performance against the Magic. Get in on these numbers before the books adjust after tonight.
3. Franz Wagner o1.5 Made Threes | -105 (.75u) at FD Sportsbook
4. Franz Wagner 3+ Made Threes | +300 (.25u) at FD Sportsbook
Like the Miami Heat, the Orlando Magic have suffered their share of injury and COVID-19 related losses. That’s led to more run for rookie forward Franz Wagner. Wagner has shot the ball acceptably from beyond the arc this year — he owns a 35.5% shooting percentage from three-point land. As such, we’re targeting him against a bad perimeter defense.
This is a fantastic matchup for him on paper. The Milwaukee Bucks have given up the most made threes per game to small forwards (3.4) and power forwards (2.8) on the year. Through the last seven games, the Bucks have improved against small forwards (2.9) but have worsened against power forwards (3.5). With Wagner spending 74% of his minutes at the three and 23% at the four, you would expect some long-range makes for him tonight.
That said, Wagner shot poorly against the Bucks when they met in November. He shot 1-for-5 across two games back then, although he also played only 22.2 minutes in those outings. Fortunately, his minutes have ticked up; Wagner has averaged 33.7 per game since the start of December. Wagner has also been somewhat cold recently, as he hasn’t hit at least two three-pointers since a December 12th game against the Lakers. However, I’m reasonably optimistic that Wagner can get right against Milwaukee’s abysmal perimeter defense, and I recommend splitting a unit on the two above props.
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