We’ve got an action-packed Sunday ahead of us in the NBA. After a profitable Friday, I’m looking to keep my momentum rolling this weekend with a few other hits. I’ve identified three player props that should have value on tonight’s slate.
Here are my top NBA betting picks for Sunday’s action.
Written Picks YTD: 21-10-0 (+14.20u)
Total Picks YTD: 36-24-0 (+20.62u)*
*Follow me @is_sirois for any other plays.
1. Myles Turner o7.5 Rebounds | +110 at FD Sportsbook
This line didn’t make much sense at 6.5, but the books moved it up to 7.5 as I was trying to find any other plays worth mentioning. Oh well. I still like the plus-money juice.
The Pacers will play the Sacramento Kings tonight, and they just don’t know how to rebound effectively. They surrender the second-most rebounds per game to centers and the seventh-most total rebounds per game (56.7). That’s what happens when you go small.
On the other side of the court, Turner has been a more effective rebounder this year than at any other point in his career. He averages 7.9 rebounds per game, a career-best by 0.6. His rebounding percentage (15.8%) is much better than what it was last year (11.4%), too. The 6-foot-11 center also has an inch and 15 pounds on Sacramento’s starting five, Richaun Holmes.
Turner has gone over this total in five of his 10 outings this year. With both of these teams ranked top-15 in pace (and Sacramento top-five), Turner should get plenty of chances to clean the glass tonight.
2. Collin Sexton o1.5 Made Threes | -102 at FD Sportsbook
Sexton isn’t a great perimeter shooter. He has never averaged more than two three-point makes per game in his career, and he has gone over this total just four times this season. So why are we targeting this prop? I have two reasons, the first of which is regression.
The fourth-year shooting guard has gone 37.9% from deep for his career. That number is down to just 26.2% this year. Sure, you can blame that on the new ball. But that information tells us two things: first, Sexton is still trying to shoot threes (his 4.2 attempts per game is actually higher than what it was in his first two seasons); second, that he has been getting unlucky.
New York’s defense is the second reason to target this prop. They allow the third-most made threes per game (14.4) and the third-most to shooting guards (4.1). Since Cleveland has to play without their highest-volume perimeter shooter, Lauri Markkanen, I expect Sexton to pick up a bit of the slack here.
3. Gordon Hayward o1.5 Made Threes | -148 at FD Sportsbook
I really don’t like today’s betting card. That’s why I’m including a line with so little value — the books have forced my hand. But even though the value isn’t great, I’m still very confident that Hayward gets at least two makes from deep.
Let’s start with his recent games. Hayward has drained at least two three-pointers in all but one game this season. In fact, he has hit exactly two three-pointers six times so far. Not only is his overall hit rate (90%) greater than the implied odds (59.68%), so is his hit rate for exactly two made threes (60%)! That doesn’t mean anything, of course, but it’s a fun little fact.
Next, Hayward spends 78% of his minutes at small forward. He spends his next-most time at the four (19%), and with P.J. Washington sidelined, he’ll probably see a bit more run tonight. His opponent, the Los Angeles Clippers, allow the fifth-most made threes to small forwards (3.58). QED.
4. Parlay: Hayward 3+ 3PT + Turner o7.5 RBD + OKC +10.5 | +795 (.1u) at FD Sportsbook
I have faith that Hayward can surpass his line and make a trio of threes tonight. I also have faith that Turner can get over his increased total, although I’m unwilling to buy him to get 10 boards. That’s steep for him. Let’s pair these two plays with a teased spread for the Oklahoma City Thunder. Their opponents, the San Antonio Spurs, don’t have key defensive weapon Jakob Poeltl. That will seriously hurt them in the paint. The Thunder aren’t great, but they should be able to score enough to keep this one within single digits.
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