We’ve got a loaded seven-game slate on tap for tonight, and I really like the overs here. We have three matchups between teams that rank top-six in pace. To say that another way, the top-six fastest teams are all playing each other. That points to value on player prop overs.
Here are my top NBA betting picks for Sunday’s action.
Written Picks YTD: 25-19-0 (+12.81u)
Total Picks YTD: 40-40-0 (+15.63u)*
*Follow me @is_sirois for any other plays.
1. Russell Westbrook o9.5 Assists | +114 at FD Sportsbook
Westbrook nearly had a triple-double against the Spurs the last time these teams met. He scored 33 points and recorded 10 rebounds, but he ended up with only eight assists. So why am I targeting his assists line here? That’s easy — the Spurs don’t have Jakob Poeltl for this one. Poeltl is an elite defender; he recorded a defensive RAPTOR rating of +5.1 last year, a mark that only three other players beat (Gobert, Claxton, and Capela).
But without Peoltl, more Lakers should get open in the paint, and Westbrook should hit them while they’re open. That’s how opposing offenses have handled the Spurs lately. Through their last seven outings, the Spurs have surrendered the fourth-most assists per game to point guards (9.7). They have also allowed the third-most points in the paint per game (50.2).
Also, Westbrook boasts an excellent assist rate (36.8%). He averages only 8.5 assists per game, but the Lakers and Spurs are both top-five in pace factor, so there should be a few extra possessions today. I would have preferred to buy this total at 8.5, but we’re getting plus-money juice here, so I won’t complain too much.
2. Grayson Allen o13.5 Points | -118 at FD Sportsbook
The Atlanta Hawks have been obnoxiously bad of late. They are on a six-game losing skid (to be fair, they’ve played some tough opponents) and have allowed opposing offenses to score seemingly at will.
The Hawks have been especially awful against opposing shooting guards. Atlanta has allowed the most points to the position over the last seven games (30.07) by a 4.18-point margin. No other team has been that much worse than the rest of the league against any other position.
Enter Grayson Allen. He spends 77% of his minutes at the two spot, and he is averaging 15.8 points per game this year. He has gone over this total in each of his last five games and is averaging 20.4 points per game through that stretch. He nailed five or more three-pointers in four of those games. The man is hot, and you’re getting some value by playing him against such a bad defense.
3. Stephen Curry o6.5 Assists | -102 at FD Sportsbook
I love Curry’s assists here. Like the Spurs, the Hornets give up a ton of assists to point guards. They have surrendered the third-most per game (10) over their last seven games and the third-most (9.84) on the season. When Curry faced the Hornets last time, he finished with nine dimes in a 22-point win.
We’re applying the same logic as with the Westbrook pick above. The Hornets struggle to defend inside, and they give up the fourth-most points in the paint per game (48.3). Curry’s elite assist rate (31.7%) suggests that he’ll probably find his teammates when they’re open near the rim, too.
Also, the Warriors and Hornets are both top-six in pace — Golden State ranks sixth, and Charlotte ranks third. I expect that to translate into a few extra possessions that will help Curry cash the over.
4. SGP: Curry 8+ AST + Kevon Looney o5.5 PTS | +399 (.25u) at FD Sportsbook
So the Hornets give up a lot of assists and aren’t good in the paint, right? Perfect. We’ll tease up Curry’s assist total (remember, he had nine against the Hornets last time) and pair that with Kevon Looney’s points. Looney ranks second on the Warriors in paint touches despite his relatively small workload. The big man recorded seven points in just 15 minutes against the Hornets last time, and I have faith that he’ll post a similar number against them tonight. Looney’s minutes have also ticked up recently; he played 20-plus minutes in his last two games.
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