The NBA is back with a loaded nine-game slate to start the workweek. Although NBATV will broadcast the Raptors and Knicks, we’re looking elsewhere to find betting value. A pair of fast-paced teams playing on a back-to-back make fantastic targets here, and I’ve identified two players to feature against them tonight.
Here are my top NBA betting picks for Monday’s action.
Written Picks YTD: 11-8-0 (+5.67u)
Total Picks YTD: 21-19-0 (+10u)*
*Follow me @is_sirois for any other plays.
1. Danny Green 2+ Made Threes | -110 at FD Sportsbook
2. Danny Green 3+ Made Threes | +350 (.5u) at FD Sportsbook
We targeted a small forward (Gordon Hayward) against the Trail Blazers yesterday, and we’re going back to the well today. While Danny Green isn’t the biggest part of Philadelphia’s rotation, he averages 24.1 minutes per game. As such, he should see enough run to hit against Portland’s atrocious perimeter defense.
The Trail Blazers just allowed the Charlotte Hornets to go 20-for-42 from deep yesterday. They’re giving up the fourth-most made threes per game (15.3) and the most to small forwards (5.22). To illustrate just how bad they’ve been against opposing threes, Hayward and Kelly Oubre combined for 38 points and eight three-pointers yesterday. That gets me to another point — Portland is on a back-to-back here, so I suspect they’ll play somewhat worse defense as a result.
Part of why Portland has struggled so much against small forwards has to do with their pace. They are the NBA’s third-fastest team, so the extra possessions help opposing shooters to have big nights against them. In contrast, Philadelphia plays at the association’s slowest pace. That’s part of why Green has only hit the over in four of six games to date. Fortunately, he should easily hit the over in a faster-paced game tonight.
3. Darius Garland Over 6.5 Assists | +114 at FD Sportsbook
We’re targeting another team on a back-to-back here: the Charlotte Hornets. Like Portland, they also play at a fast pace, and they rank 10th in the association. They also give up the sixth-most assists per game (25.9) and the sixth-most to point guards (9.67). Evidence suggests that opposing ones tend to pass out rather than shoot against their defense, too — Charlotte allows the fourth-fewest points to the position (17.67). Case in point: Damian Lillard scored just 14 points but racked up 12 assists against them yesterday.
Enter Darius Garland. The third-year point guard spends all of his time at the one, and he averages 31 minutes and 8.2 assists per game. Garland has gone over this total in three of his five starts. Although he missed Cleveland’s earlier game against Charlotte, his replacement, Ricky Rubio, racked up 10 dimes.
I’m not really sure why this total is so low. Garland has a ridiculous assist percentage (41%) and ranks 14th in total assists (42) despite having played in just five games. This is a fantastic matchup for him, so get in on the plus-money juice while you can.
4. Parlay: Green 3+ 3PT and Garland 8+ AST | +1250 (.1u) at FD Sportsbook
Let’s tease these totals up a hair and put a tenth of a unit on it. Green has gone for three-plus three-pointers twice on the year, so I don’t understand why his line (+350) has such low implied odds (22.2%). Likewise, Garland has gone for eight-plus assists twice, so his line’s (+200) implied odds (33.3%) also seem a bit low, albeit less so. That said, throwing these two plays together and putting a tenth of a unit on them would yield 1.25u, so we absolutely love the value the books are giving us.
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