The second ticket to the second round was punched last night in Miami, as the Heat beat the Hawks 97-94 to win the series 4-1. While the Celtics punched their ticket Monday, the Warriors and the Bucks will look to do the same tonight as the Nuggets and Bulls hang on for dear life.
Let’s take a look at both games and find where the value remains.
#1. Bucks -12 | -115 at DK Sportsbook
Since grabbing game 2 in Milwaukee to even up the series at 1-1, the Bottom has fallen out for the Bulls. Averaging just 88 points per game in their two games (losses) since, the Bulls’ offense has gone ice cold, shooting just 39% from the field their last time out.
Already down Lonzo Ball (knee). Matt Thomas (leg), and Zach Lavine (illness) for game four, the Bulls won’t get them back tonight and are now also without Alex Caruso from a concussion he suffered in game four. With only DeMar DeRozan to go against a Bucks team who ranked third in the league in points per game this season (115.5 ppg), look for a monster close-out performance at home and for the Bucks to punch their ticket with relative ease to Round 2.
#2. Bulls-Bucks Over 217.5 | -110 at DK Sportsbook
With the injuries to the Bulls on top of four straight under already this series, I think we’re getting some value in a deflated total here. While no Lavine or Caruso certainly hurt the Bulls’ prospects of scoring, it also opens the door for even more Bucks points, from namely Grayson Allen who has shot 79% from three over the past two games.
As far as the Bulls’ offense goes, it’s also worth noting that while DeRozan leads all scorers with 23.3 points per game, Nikola Vucevic, who will be suiting up tonight, is #2 with 19.5 ppg. I like for some upwards regression tonight from two teams who both rank in the top half of the league in scoring.
#3. Warriors -9 | -110 at DK Sportsbook
While this series hasn’t been as one-sided as the tally might indicate, the Warriors are slowly starting to look like a championship-caliber team once again. Averaging 122 points per game through the first four, the Warriors’ offense is starting to click once again as the splash brothers have reverted right back to what they do best; splash.
Though this would be a much different series if Nikola Jokic had his two top playmakers in Michael Porter Jr. (back) and Jamal Murray (knee), the fact is he doesn’t, and this one likely ends tonight. Averaging a combined 59 points per game over their past two, I like for the Curry-Thompson connection to land the Warriors a double-digit win tonight at home to close this one.
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