We’ve got a small, five-game slate on tap tonight in the NBA. While I usually like to stay away from nationally broadcast games, the battle between the Warriors and Suns seems to offer some betting value. I’ve featured a pair of low-profile player props alongside my read for that game.
Here are my top NBA betting picks for Tuesday’s action.
Written Picks YTD: 46-37-0 (+17.37u)
Total Picks YTD: 62-65-0 (+16.36u)*
*Follow me @is_sirois for any other plays.
1. Warriors +2.5 | -110 at BetMGM
Will the Phoenix Suns extend their winning streak to 17 games? My NBA betting model has its doubts. It favors the Warriors to pull off the road upset over their red-hot opponents, and it considers them a lock to cover. Why? Let’s break down the model’s reasoning piece by piece.
First, the Warriors have been the more efficient team this year. They rank second in offensive efficiency and first in defensive efficiency. While the Suns have had a great stretch of play recently, their advantage doesn’t seem to warrant a two-point home advantage. The Suns rank sixth in offensive efficiency (1.135) over their last three games, while the Warriors rank eighth (1.112). While that yields Phoenix a 2.3-basket possession over 100 possessions, we can’t forget about Golden State’s defense. Through the last three games, the Warriors rank first in defensive efficiency (.948) while the Suns rank eighth (1.031), giving Golden State an 8.3-basket advantage over 100 possessions. Once we throw an anticipated pace in, my model favors Golden State by 2.76.
Second, the model values Golden State’s available personnel more than Phoenix’s. Even with Andre Iguodala and Damion Lee sidelined, it values the Warriors at 41.5 available win shares and the Suns at just 36.1. That 5.4-win share advantage translates into a sizeable advantage for the road dogs, which means that the model expects them to at least cover.
Lastly, the Warriors have been a solid away team this year. They have covered the spread in 75% of their road games; in contrast, the Suns have covered in just 50% of their home outings. Look for Golden State to cover again tonight.
2. Precious Achiuwa o11.5 Points | +104 at FD Sportsbook
The Memphis Grizzlies have been awful against opposing centers recently. They have allowed the second-most points per game to the position (28.2) over their last seven outings. They have also allowed the most points per game to the position on the year (26.8). Also, the Grizzlies permit the seventh-most points in the paint (47.6), a figure which has ticked up (52) over their last three games.
Enter Precious Achiuwa. Toronto’s starting five racked up 17 points against the Grizzlies earlier this month. He went 7-for-11 from the floor and 3-for-3 from three-point land. While those long-range numbers probably aren’t sustainable (Achiuwa averages 0.4 made threes per game), the paint should remain open enough for him to sail over this total.
Achiuwa beat this number by five against the Grizzlies just six days ago, but you’re getting it in the plus money today. With Khem Birch still on the sidelines, expect solid production from Achiuwa again tonight.
3. Jerami Grant o19.5 Points | -118 (.5u) at FD Sportsbook
This slate isn’t a great one for player props. The best game for overs, Los Angeles at Sacramento, features a few players whose injury statuses remain unclear. Most of the totals that I usually target aren’t there, either, so we’re going for a half-unit play on this line. If you read my picks last year, you shouldn’t be surprised to see me featuring Grant on a short slate.
Grant averages 19.7 points per game, which suggests a slight edge on the over. However, it’s the last seven games that really make this play a smart one — Grant has averaged 22.9 points per game through that stretch. Likewise, the Portland Trail Blazers have surrendered the eighth-most points per game to power forwards (23) through those same seven games.
The Pistons and Blazers play at a pace slightly below the league average, but they aren’t slow enough for me to pivot away from this prop.
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.