We’ve got an six-game NBA slate on tap this evening, and tonight’s headliner has to be the Dallas Mavericks’ trip to Los Angeles to play the Lakers. I recommend that you avoid both of those teams tonight, however. Instead, let’s target the Curry brothers and a sweet two-leg parlay tonight.
Here are my top NBA betting picks for Tuesday’s action.
Written Picks YTD: 96-101-0 (+10.07u)
Model ATS Picks YTD: 102-85-3 (+7.82u)*
Model ML Picks YTD: 21-38 (+7.05u)*
*Follow me @is_sirois for the model’s picks.
1. Seth Curry Over 2.5 Made Threes | +105 at DK Sportsbook
The reeling Brooklyn Nets will face the Toronto Raptors tonight, and Steven Nash’s team really needs a break. They’ve stumbled from the top of the Eastern Conference to eighth, and they’ll play the seventh-ranked Raptors tonight. That means no Kyrie Irving, as the unvaccinated guard is not eligible to play in Toronto. With Kevin Durant still on the sidelines, Brooklyn will have to lean on their reserves, and that means more opportunities for Seth Curry to shoot threes.
Since he joined the Nets six games ago, Curry has averaged 3.3 made threes and 30.5 minutes per game. The sharpshooter recorded at least a trio of triples in four of those six games, and he finished with no fewer than two in that span. To be fair, he recorded only a pair of made threes against the Raptors yesterday, but the Nets only left him in for 23 minutes in the blowout loss. He shot 66.7% from beyond the arc. The Nets may get blown out again, but they’ll have less of an incentive to rest their players, and a slight uptick in Curry’s volume should help him nose over this number.
I feel confident about this play because the Raptors give up a surprising number of triples to opposing shooting guards. Toronto has allowed an association-high 4.6 made threes per game through their last seven contests. They have given up 3.6 made threes per game on the season, good for the fourth-most.
Let’s target this one while some books still have it in the plus money.
2. Stephen Curry Over 4.5 Made Threes | -110 at DK Sportsbook
We’ll double down on Curry threes by targeting the elder Steph against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Minnesota just played a surprisingly tough game against the banged-up Cavaliers last night, and it forced them to play most of their starters for an above-average share of minutes. That doesn’t bode well for their ability to defend Curry and the Warriors here — the Over is 7-3 when the Timberwolves play without rest.
Curry has played the Wolves twice this year. He went 3-for-9 against them in their first meeting and 6-for-10 in their second. Fortunately for Curry, the Timberwolves have gotten worse at defending the perimeter since those contests. The Timberwolves have allowed their opponents to make only 35% of their shots from beyond the arc this season, but that number sits at an atrocious 40.2% through their last three contests.
Evidence suggests that opposing point guards have done most of that damage. The Timberwolves have allowed the position to average a pedestrian 2.9 made threes per game this season, but that number jumps to 3.7 made threes through their last seven games. To illustrate their struggles, let’s turn to the box scores: Brandon Goodwin went 2-for-4 against them from long range yesterday, and the tandem of James Harden and Tyrese Maxey collectively went 7-for-10.
With Draymond Green and Klay Thompson sidelined, look for Curry to step up and carry the Warriors with long-range makes.
3. Parlay: GSW ML + LAC ML | +155 at FD Sportsbook
Yesterday’s parlay hit, so let’s take that momentum and translate into this play. First, I’m big on fading the Timberwolves today. They’re playing a better team on a back-to-back, and they have struggled in those situations this season. This season, they have gone 3-7 when playing without rest and 8-9 when playing with a rest disadvantage. In contrast, the Warriors are 12-5 with a rest advantage. The moneyline for this one sits right around -110, so we’re getting a healthy chunk of value on Golden State today.
We’ll supplement our Golden State pick with the Los Angeles Clippers’ moneyline. They’ll face the tanking Houston Rockets tonight, and the Rockets last won a game on Feb. 2. They are on a depressing nine-game skid, which includes a pair of losses to the Clippers — one by 31 points, the other by one. We’ll make this bet because of pure game theory: the Rockets no longer have anything to play for (except Stephen Silas’ job), but the Clippers currently rank eighth in the Western Conference and appear poised to qualify for the play-in tournament. Ty Lue won’t want to give this game away with seeding on the line, so let’s back Los Angeles to win here.
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.