We’ve got an intriguing five-game slate on tap tonight in the NBA. I don’t think that there is much betting value on this card, so I’m limiting myself to two units of action. That said, the lines that do have value come with a lot of it.
Here are my top NBA betting picks for Sunday’s action.
Written Picks YTD: 33-27-0 (+13.98u)
Total Picks YTD: 49-55-0 (+13.97u)*
*Follow me @is_sirois for any other plays.
1. Andrew Wiggins o17.5 Points | -116 (.8u) at FD Sportsbook
2. Andrew Wiggins 3+ Made Threes | +250 (.2u) at FD Sportsbook
Wiggins and the rest of the Golden State Warriors are having a strong start to the year. The team sits at 14-2 and Wiggins is averaging 18.3 points per game. The raw average points to the slightest bit of value on the over, but we’re slamming it because of Toronto’s recent defensive struggles.
The Raptors and rookie Scottie Barnes received praise for their strong defensive play thus far. However, through the last seven games, Toronto has allowed the fifth-most points per game to small forwards (24.9) and the fourth-most made threes (3.46). The Warriors play a good deal of positionless basketball, but Wiggins still spends 69% of his minutes at the three spot. If you’re worried about Barnes locking Wiggins down, the rook spends 79% of his time at the four.
I’m also targeting this line because Wiggins attempted 10 three-pointers in his first meeting with the Raptors last year, which fell just one short of his season-high. The Warriors will be looking to avenge the 53-point loss the Raptors handed them in April, and I expect Wiggins to play a large role in Golden State’s offense tonight. We’re splitting a unit between his points and a teased-up total for his made threes; should they both hit, you’d be up 1.3u.
3. Kemba Walker o2.5 Rebounds | +142 at FD Sportsbook
The books are treating this line like it doesn’t cash that often, but it does. Walker has pulled down at least three boards in most of his games this year, including his last meeting with the Chicago Bulls. Weird.
We’re also getting value here because these teams lack size at the moment. The Bulls won’t have their starting center, Nikola Vucevic, and the Knicks may have to play without their starting center, Mitchell Robinson, too. Chicago is also on the front end of a back-to-back, so they may deploy some odd lineups that could help Walker secure an extra board here or there.
It would be irresponsible not to acknowledge that Tom Thibodeau has deployed his starters in weird ways recently. That said, Walker only got 20 minutes of action last night, so he is coming into this one somewhat fresh. There is simply too much value on this line to pass up.
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