The Memphis Grizzlies and Boston Celtics both have a chance to bring their second-round series back to a draw before Game 5. However, both teams will have to get a road victory if they want to do so. I’m featuring a pair of players on their teams below—although probably not for reasons fans of those franchises would have hoped.
Here are two top NBA player props for Monday’s betting card.
1. Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 1.5 Turnovers | +115 at DK Sportsbook
With Ja Morant sidelined, the rest of the Memphis Grizzlies will have to do a lot more ball-handling. That bodes poorly for Jackson, who often turned over the ball over at least twice when Morant was out in the regular season.
Jackson averaged 1.9 turnovers per game when Morant sat out from late November to late December. He again averaged 1.9 turnovers per game during Morant’s second extended absence late in the year. Jackson is averaging 1.7 turnovers per game in the playoffs alongside Morant, which sits right at his regular-season average. We’ve already seen Jackson go over this number four times in the playoffs and once this series, too.
The Grizzlies haven’t faced this much pressure all season, and I expect enough mistakes from Jackson to cash this plus-money prop. It helps that Golden State forced the eighth-most turnovers per game in the regular season. The Warriors have also forced the Grizzlies to turn the ball over 14.3 times per game this series.
2. Grant Williams Over 4.5 Rebounds | +115 at DK Sportsbook
We’ll target another unconventional plus-money prop here with Grant Williams. Al Horford has been dominating the glass in Boston’s series against the Bucks, but something has got to give. The 35-year-old, who will turn 36 in just a few weeks, has three double-doubles in three games and is averaging 12.3 rebounds per game. He has also played 37.5 minutes per game, which cannot be ideal at this point in his career.
The Celtics are leaning on Horford to rebound and defend Giannis Antetokounmpo. I don’t think that’s a sustainable model for playoff success. Boston may have to reduce his workload a touch tonight, and that should lead to more opportunities for both Grant Williams, who Ime Udoka has also trusted to defend Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Robert Williams.
Horford averaged only 7.7 rebounds per game in the regular season, so some regression from his absurd average this series feels inevitable. Meanwhile, Grant Williams has averaged exactly 5.0 rebounds per game for Boston this series and has gone over this number twice. I would have set the juice for this market at -110 on both sides, so I think we’re getting a solid chunk of value by playing it at +115.
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